Bitcoin stock to flow model live chart. Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 91%. (I'm a bot)
14.10.2019 15:00CET What is Bitcoin Bitcoin is the first digital object that cannot be copied, duplicated, pirated or forged. Bitcoin is the first digitally scarce thing known to mankind, and within its inner workings is a Mathematical mechanism that should make Bitcoin's value continue to rise. Each bitcoin is mined from so-called "Blocks". What is Bitcoin stock to flow The 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock. How does all this affect bitcoin price As previously mentioned, it is not possible to copy or forge Bitcoins, and the total supply is strictly limited. If we put current Bitcoin stock to flow value into this formula we get value of 10.750 USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
Ultimate glossary of crypto currency terms, acronyms and abbreviations
In a recent spillover of internet-based long-form intellectual new media into the mainstream, Eric Weinstein appeared as a guest on Ted Cruz's podcast. Eric was well prepared. Cruz played the role of a charitable and engaged critic while avoiding direct confrontation. The conservation laid bare the intersection of the anti-corporate socialist left and anti-government libertarian right and the potential of these forces as a combined political interest. There was a strong sense of shared acknowledgement of the current crisis and they touched on all the culture war aspects. But I'm more interested in what Eric has pointed to now several times as the root cause of the systemic decline, and what seems to be the original trigger for the slow decay and building of tension that has ultimately led to the rise of darker elements on both the left and right that we see today: a Great Decoupling of productivity (GDP) and wage growth in the early 1970's. The significance of this time period has also been highlighted by Eric's boss, Peter Thiel. We are referred to https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/, where a collection of charts give the impression that a profound change in the foundations of the economy took place, effectively causing a divergence of all kinds of metrics related to equality, wealth creation, the complexity of regulation, and implicitly downstream effects like political polarization, incarceration rates, and age of marriage. The simple, seemingly persuasive answer is that the effective cancellation of the gold standard set us on a path towards borrowing ever larger sums to avert financial crises as they arise, and the return to a currency backed by something provably scarce, i.e. bitcoin, is a solution. I can't say I'm convinced it's that simple. And Eric doesn't mention currency specifically as the problem. So what I want to know is, was 1971 a real inflection point, the real root of inequality and dysfunction we see today? Was the removal of limits on the Fed's ability to print money a mistake? Or was there some other government action or change at that time that was the real cause? Do we need to let stock market crashes happen from time to time? A year ago, u/gwern posted a 1986 Atlantic article that described a lot of the problems in black America that are still around 4 decades later and offered more in the way of nuance and insight than most of the discourse we see today. What struck me on revisiting it was how the timing of the decline of Chicago aligns with the early 1970's trigger hypothesis:
In 1970 thirty-seven percent of the population of the area was below the poverty line; in 1980 the figure was 51 percent. In 1970 the unemployment rate was 9.5 percent; in 1980 it was 24.2 percent. In 1970 forty percent of the residents of the neighborhood lived in families with a female head; in 1980 the number had grown to 72 percent. In 1980 of the 54,000 residents 33,000 were on welfare. Experts agree that all of the numbers are even worse today.
My mental model for social issues is that they are mostly rooted in economics. If you have a society that generates wealth, you can pay teachers, doctors, and police well enough to attract competent candidates and the competition necessary to create real expertise. You can afford to build and maintain good infrastructure and spend time on figuring out how to best help the disadvantaged. You have the resources to advance technology and support the arts. You get all the positive feedback loops that come with this. When wealth generation becomes concentrated and restricted, public institutions start to struggle, people feel they have less opportunity, and social issues start to bubble up like the formation of outgroups of all kinds. A massive oversimplifation, I know, but a useful general framework to approaching issues that avoids (mis)placing blame on cultural degeneracy, "evil" corporations, or other common scapegoats that are largely symptoms of greater problems. Today, this mindset seems to align with the conservative right, but in the 1986 article it's the "liberal answer" to the problem of ghettos that I identify with:
In Chicago the harbinger of the change was the closing in the late fifties of the stockyards, which for half a century were the sine qua non of lower-class grunt work and a heavy employer of blacks. Chicago lost 200,000 jobs in the seventies; small shut-down redbrick factories that used to make products like boxes and ball bearings dot the city, especially the West Side. The lack of jobs, the argument continues, caused young men in the ghetto to adopt a drifting, inconstant life; to turn to crime; to engage in exaggeratedly macho behavior -- acting tough, not studying, bullying women for money -- as a way to get the sense of male strength that their fathers had derived from working and supporting families. As Murray believes that one simple step, ending all welfare programs, would heal the ghettos, the unemployment school believes that another simple step, jobs, would heal them. "When there's a demand for the participation of the black underclass in the labor force, most of the so-called problems people talk about will evaporate in a generation," says John McKnight. an urban-research professor at Northwestern University.
Indeed, Mr. McKnight. And up until this spring, it looked like the Trump presidency's aggressively pro-jobs and pro-American workers policy was showing promise of vindicating this view - the presence of BLM and racial tensions leading up to 2016 had all but subsided by 2018-2019. I wonder just how little backlash the George Floyd incident would have caused if the pandemic hadn't undone the economic progress of the past 3 years. Mind you, that "progress" was but a tiny step in the right direction in terms of improving wages and opportunities for the lowest earners. And for all the times the "audit the fed" meme hit the top of the_donald, it now seems impossible that the current administration has any capability or willingness to take the drastic steps needed to address the real root cause that apparently started 50 years ago. To do that, we may need an actual revolution.
NightOwl seedbank drop, and all the 10/10 info available at the moment.
Read or skip to the end for 10/10 info. This will be the last seed bank drop update post I'll make, I don't want to flood the sub with a weekly update of another vendor getting it. I will try and keep the stock and new vendors up to date. The chart below the descriptions is self-explanatory, list of seedbanks, stock, payment methods, and if you can purchase internationally. Also, most of these banks carry Mephisto so if you want to double-dip while your store is closed. From Daz's Instagram New vendor exclusive limited-edition drop, live now!! I've spread these three new varieties out to my vendors in hopes of giving all of you a greater chance at getting them! They are a small batch and WILL NOT BE REMADE. Go support them because they've supported me. AT LEAST 4 SEEDS IN EVERY PACK, keychains, and slaps (while supplies last). Strain Description Foot Cheeze (Northern Cheeze Haze (UK Cheese pheno) x Tyrone Stomper) Extra frosty medium-large plants with sturdy side branching, dense golf ball nugs running up each branch, and a cheesy fruity smell ranging from citrus to red fruit. She finishes around 75 days from sprout, yields 2-4 ounces, and has a heavy narcotic affect. Head Cheeze (Northern Cheese Haze (Haze pheno) x Tyrone Stomper) A sweet lemony, uplifting pheno of Northern Cheese Haze met up with an extremely greasy Tyrone Stomper resulting in long greasy colas of piercing grapey haze flavors and effects. Heavy indulgence can lead to a lingering paranoia, so plan accordingly ahead of time. Finishes in approximately 70-75 days from sprout and yields around 2-4 ounces. Squanch Queen (Samsquanch OG x Cosmic Queen) Some people say creamy sweet gas doesn't exist, but it can be found within these large plants. Satellite branches will take off almost immediately and will require staking or training to make the most of them. Dense disco ball nugs climb up her branches, leading to beautiful flower clusters at the tip of each. Stepping back from the plant, you will see her overall crown shape right before your eyes. This is a heavy-hitting hybrid. The more you use the less productive that you will be. Happy and euphoric in smaller doses, she can create heavy eyelids and a severe lack of motivation when overdone. Finishes around 75 days from sprout.
Fifth, Daz mentions in a post last week Creme De La Soul has got great feedback. So something new with Creme De La Soul is coming along on 10/10. And a bonus no one asked about. I don't know if it's going to be available for 10/10, I don't know the parents, the only detail i have is the name "Spotless Mind", and it was teased a week ago.
Philly's weekly watchlist [Way longer than I wanted it to be but it's for 5 days]
Remember this is for 5 days. My daily watchlist changes well.... daily and is posted 8/16 WEEKLY WATCHLIST [P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ] PENNIES [💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely]
🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀 $SINT - Wednesday huge webinar. Mass support at $1.90-$2. Slight resistance at $2.50🔥🚀💎👀 $AIM - Still believe this is a $5 ticker in the future. Chart looks to be squeezing upward in a cup and handle fashion. MACD setup quite well.Godly support at $1.95. Decent support at $2.35/$2.54. Resistances $2.70-74/ $2.85/$3.02/$3.15. 💎👀 $BKYI - RUMOR MSFT Buyout August 19th! Had a single buyer with a 200k share bid at $0.75. Support seems to be $0.63/$0.68/$0.71. Seems to be rough resistance at the $0.77-$0.78 range . After that could run $0.80/$0.93/$1.06🔥🚀 $CHEK - UNGODLY oversold. 100% Shareholders at a loss! Revese split? Has until December. 52 week low. Expecting a HARD short squeeze here. Exploring US Partnership. 🔥👀 $IZEA - AUG 18th Webinar. Tiktok partnership RUMOR?!?! 80% Shareholders breakeven or at a loss! Insane Support at $1.02. Decent support $1.28/$1.35. Small resistance at $1.47 than $1.60/$1.92/$2. $SXTC - Earning Aug 25th $JFU - Bitcoin play. Ungodly Oversold. Sitting right on support $1.90. Could break up to $2.13/$2.38/$2.60. LOOKING FOR A HEAVY REVERSAL HERE🔥🚀 $MYT - Offering should close 8/19. $0.30. IMO $0.28-$0.33 is a good entry. This should be an easy 5-10% runner. $CJJD - 5Year average $1.60. SMASHED EARNINGS. Warrants at $2.00. HEAVY support at $1.20-$1.29. Resistances to break are $1.39/$1.50. This should close up to $1.70-$1.80 in the upcoming weeks!💎🚀 $DLPN - EARNINGS Aug 17th AH. I have been playing this for months. $0.86-$0.91 buyin. Sell at $1-$1.08Only scary thing is they might split due to compliance💎🚀👀 $LPCN - FDA Approval Aug 28th $HX - Honestly this is kind of a gamble but I'm keeping my eyes on it. 2h4hr Looking for a reversal. Watching this heavy for a pop off! $SOLO - US MANUFACTURING Location PR by END OF YEAR. 4hr MACD is setup PERFECTLY. Has a nice gap up to $3-$3.10 to fill. Support is $2.33/ Resistances arnt until $3.10/$3.19/$3.42. 💎🔥👀 $ONTX - Made compliance not long ago. HUGE news in the next 35 days. SUPER oversold on the 4hr. This should MINIMAL gap up to $1. Supports were $1/$1.11/$1.15. Resistances were $1.20/$1.25 /$1.35 💎👀 $MARK - Looking to setup golden triangle on 4hr. MACD and RSI perfect! Super beat down on earnings?! Already looking to curl upward. I'd expect $1.60/$1.75/$1.90/$2.40. $TRVN - $2.30 Offering. Imo $2.20-$2.40 GREAT PRICE. Aug 19th-Aug 20th virtual chat! Really good drug pipeline. Support around the $2.20 area. Once offering closes I expect this to gap up to $2.50-2.75 minimal. 💎🚀👀 $AYTU - HUGE INSTUITIONAL BUYS 8/14. Super oversold earning September 24th. Might take an early position here. Insane support $1.25-$1.28. Looking for this to run to $1.40-$1.49/$1.55/$1.65. $DGLY - MASSIVELY oversold on earnings. Looking for a reversal around the $1.55/$1.85 area. 90% of shareholders break even or at a loss!! $APEX - Golden triangle approaching on daily. Support $0.55/$0.65. Once $0.70 resistance is broken this should gap up to $0.77-$0.79/ $0.94/ $1.01/ $1.10🔥🚀👀 $IDEX - What can I say. Alfs back on twitter dropping bombs. GODLY support at $1.22-$1.25/ Decent support at $1.30. Resistances at $1.46/$1.52/$1.62 $GECC - Monthly dividend 1.60% Yield. Golden Triangle approaching. Huge gap to $7 to fill.💎👀 $PSEC - Monthly Dividend yield 1.17%. Golden Triangle approaching. Decent gap to $6.50 to fill.💎👀 💰HONORABLE MENTIONS💰 : $UAVS $MARA/RIOT- Anytime Bitcoin is above 11.6k 💰Non-Pennys💰 $TFFP - Entered worldwide commercial liscensing with Union Therapeutics. 99% Shareholders at a profit![scary] . Support is hella far away around $6/$9. This has very little resistances and could free run to $14+ 🔥🚀👀 $GOLD - Warran Buffet need I say more🔥🚀👀 $NRP - 4.18% Dividend upcoming 💎👀 $JMIA - Super beatdown. End of year this should be a $20-$30 ticker. 4hr MACD starting up again👀 $DSS - If this hits $6 I'm going super hella bullish in. Looking for a gap to $9/$10/$12/$14 $BABA - Upcoming earning. Trump talking about Chinese company bans LOL. If this gets beat down I'm going in HEAVY!👀 $SPAQ - Tons of pre-orders aka free revenue without advertising. This should take off like NKLA did eventually!GODLY support at $10.60.Decent support at the $12 area. Resistances sit at $12.50/$13/$14. This could run up QUICK! FISKER dropping the PR bombs on twitter like a MAD MAN! Newfilter.io [USE THIS SITE, LOVE THIS SITE, BEFRIEND THIS SITE] It gives live news [1-5mins delayed]. I refresh the FDA approval constantly and the latest news pretty often
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
For Trading October 21st IBM & NFLX TANK, SNAP FLIES UP An Unimpressive Outing for Indexes Today’s market was another reversal of fortune after an up open and a high +379, we fell all the way back to close +113.37 (.40%), NASDAQ was +153 but finished +37.61 (.33%) and the rest followed the pattern with S&P 500 +16.20 (.47%), the Russell +4.08 (.25%) and the biggest gainer, DJ Transports +152.21 (1.3%). Internals were just okay with NYSE 2:1 up and NAZ just 6:5. Volume was average. The DJIA was 24 up, 6 lower, with the biggest changes from IBM -54 DP’s and TRV +40DP’s. Aside from IBM there were no other double-digit losers and all the rest of the double-digit gainers were up less than 20 points. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/UYkje0_lqQo SECTORS: Earnings were the big mover today with the aforementioned IBM miss that took the stock down last night and into the open, but that was just a warmup. By the end of the day Big Blue was pounded for a low of 116.84 and a close not much higher at $117.45 -8.07 (8.07%). Netflix (NFLX) also missed and after closing $525.42 -5.30, it plummeted to $486 and the last is $493.90 -37.03 (6.98%). The decline from the new all-time high of $572.49 just last Wednesday is just under 14%. The big winner so far is SNAP with a surprise beat that sent the stock to a new all-time high at $35.57 and a last of $34.89 +6.23 or 21.67% on the day. And the HOMERUN OF THE DAY goes to Astrotech, ASTC, who signed an agreement to produce a “breath” test for Covid-19. The stock has been reversed twice in the past 12 years both 1:10 and 1:5 giving it an adjusted high of $800 and a close today of $1.69, but after the announcement of the joint venture with Cleveland Clinic the stock has been on a tear to a high of $6.90 and the last of $6.72 +5.01 (300%). Tomorrow ought to be interesting once the RH traders get a hold of it! New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.49, RCL +2.17, NCHL +.64, AAL +.32, DAL +.58, LUV +.36, UAL +.75, HA +.34, ALK +.42, and XTN $61.67 +1.12 (1,86%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.45, FLO -.57, CPB -.93, CAG -.35, MDLZ -.19, KHC +.22, CALM -.03, JJSF +.94, SAFM -3.35. HRL -.26, SJM - 1.08, PPC +.06, KR -.48, and a new addition ACI +.86, and PBJ $34.18 -.04 (.11%). BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +2.23, ABBV +.19, REGN -6.51, ISRG +2.14, GILD +.15, MYL -.11, TEVA -.11, VRTX -5.50, BHC -.19, INCY +2.10, ICPT -1.57, LABU -2.47, and IBB $136.53 -.90 (.65%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.21, CGC -.66, CRON -.06, GWPH +.28, ACB -.21, CURLF +.50, KERN -.22 and MJ $11.36 -.16 (1.39%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -10.71, GD -.22, TXT -.51, NOC -2.28, BWXT -.77, TDY +5.16, RTX -.22, and ITA $163.00 -1.36 (.83%). RETAIL: was MIXED with M +.24, JWN +.17, KSS +1.28, DDS -2.33, WMT +.95, TGT +.82, TJX -.20, RL -.85, and a new addition GPS -.07, and XRT $53.79 +.11 (.20%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +40.05, AMZN +10.79, AAPL +1.89, FB +14.35, NFLX (see above) -35.62, NVDA +6.39, TSLA -5.98, BABA +5.41, BIDU +.83, CMG +14.42, CRM +2.25, BA +.46, CAT +2.40, DIS +.77 and XLK $119.60 +.70 (.59%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +2.34, JPM +.57, BAC +.49, MS +.52, C +.74, PNC +2.07, AIG +.56, TRV +6.27, V +1.13, and XLF $24.96 +.35 (1.42%). OIL, $41.70 +.64, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions. The stocks were higher today and there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $29.90 +.35 (1.18%). GOLD $1,915.40 +3.70opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $11,970 +215. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $13.30 +.47 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading September 22nd NASDAQ Reversal NKLA LOWER TREVOR MILTON OUT TRAVEL DECLINES New section below Today’s market started off with a massive selloff that started in Europe and only got worse. Shortly after the open the DJIA was -940, NASDAQ -280, and S&P -90, but that was about it. While it was ugly, there were rallies off those lows with the biggest being the NASDAQ, actually looking like it might make it into the green, but finishing just below those levels -14.48 (.13%), DJIA -509.72 (1.84%), S&P -38.41 (1.16%), the Russell -51.53 (3,35%) and the DJ Transports -302.91 (2.65%). Market internals were weak with the NYSE 6:1, NASDAQ 4:1, and volume bigger than recent days. The DJIA was 26 down, 4 up with the biggest losers UNH -60, HON -50, BA, AXP, AMGN and several others all shaving about 30 DP’s off the averages. On the upside, several big names, AAPL, MSFT, WMT, and CRM all turned back off their lows and finished both near their highs and up on the day. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/N5b78BIEOaY SECTORS: There weren’t any important economic numbers today, but there was plenty of news. NKLA was a feature with Trevor Milton stepping down and leaving the board. His hyperbolic attitude was clearly a touch too much and some of the claims totally without any proof. The stock has several detractors and the two reports from last week by notable “short firms” Citron and Hindenburg, putting out reports calling attention to those claims. Beyond the financial claims, the most glaring was the video of their semi rolling down the highway, which turned out to be exactly that, rolling from the top of a hill down without its own power. The stock, $93.99 in June, and $54.56 just 2 weeks ago had fallen to close Friday at $34.19, opened today $25.00, traded as low as 24.05 before turning back higher a bit and finishing 27.58 -6.61 (19.33%) and cut in half since 9/8/2020. On the upside we had WMT, MSFT, and ORCL on the news of the structuring of a deal for TIK TOK. I’m pretty attentive to details, but after an entire day of hearing the details I still don’t know who is going to own what piece of the new entity, what the costs and pricing represent, or how China feels about it. I guess we’ll have to await more details before it’s a “done deal.” New Group: Air & Cruise Lines: was LOWER with CCL -.92, RCL -4.35, NCHL -1.02, AAL -.83, DAL -2.77, LUV -2.13, UAL -2.82, HA -1.01, ALK -2.84, JBLU -1.02 AND XTN $59.27 -1.21 (2.0%). All these prices were down between 6% – 8% on the day. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -2.01, BGS +.57, FLO -.06, CPB +.75, CAG +.45, MDLZ -.67, KHC +.11, CALM -.89, JJSF -4.40, SAFM -3.19, HRL -.28, SJM +.40, PPC -1.11, KR +.25 and PBJ $32.15 -.30 (.9%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -6.18, ABBV -.92, REGN +.46, ISRG -13.62, GILD -.70, MYL -.88, TEVA -.54, VRTX -1.39, BHC -.67, INCY -1.40, ICPT -1.69, LABU -6.14, and IBB $132.83 -3.49 (2.56%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.31, CGC -.60, CRON -.16, GWPH -.18, ACB -.08, NBEV -.06, CURLF +.19, KERN -.12, and MJ $10.87 -.31 (2.77%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -15.14, GD -4.66, TXT -1.98, NOC -15.61, BWXT -1.29, TDY -12.48, RTX -2.33, and ITA $159.67 -5.88 (3.55%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.41, JWN -1.13, KSS -1.84, DDS -2.15, WMT +2.11, TGT +1.04, TJX -1.85, RL -4.66, UAA -.83, LULU +.34, TPR -.85, CPRI -.41, and XRT $49.08 -1.20 (2.39%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were MIXED with GOOGL -20.95, AMZN +15.42, AAPL +3.24, FB -3.63, NFLX +17.54, NVDA +14.36, TSLA -14.95, BABA +1.76, BIDU -.01, CMG -8.96, CRM +1.77, BA -4.83, CAT -6.99, DIS -3.23, and XLK $113.01 +1.47 (1.34%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.41, JPM -3.00, BAC -.75M MS -1.76, C -.91, PNC-2.92, AIG -.94, TRV -2.16, V -4.76, and XLF $24.00 -.55 (2.22%). OIL, $39.54 -1.78, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were higher with XLE $32.12 -.96 (2.86%). GOLD $1,910.60 – 51.90, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I will be taking a hard look at buying GLD tomorrow. BITCOIN: closed $10,485 -395. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.13 -.61 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading October 22nd WHR HOME RUN NUMBERS CMG, TSLA, LVS All Beat Today’s market was another back and forth without much net change. I know that many think that 100 or 200-point moves look like a lot but on a percentage basis it’s less than 1%. With “algo’s” and buy and sell programs, that’s not overwhelming. At the end of the day the DJIA was -97.97 (.35%), NASDAQ -31.80 (.28%), S&P 500 -7.56 (.22%), the Russell -13.93 (.86%) and the biggest loser was DJ Transports -135.28 (1.14%). Market internals were 2:1 down on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Only 7 stocks were up out of the DJIA with the big winner TRV adding 45 DP’s and the loser was GS -33 DP’s. The rest were all up or down less than 20. The lack of progress on any stimulus plans seems to be the main issue, and it concerns me greatly. I’m not so much concerned with poor holiday sales, but they clearly will suffer, but the jackasses in Washington have no idea what it means to be concerned with the rent, or food, or heat, and assuming that Biden gets elected, I wouldn’t expect any action until mid-winter. #TERMLIMITS. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/g-gP65lp96E SECTORS: Earnings were the big movers again today with some big names putting out some big numbers. The biggest winner that I keyed in upon was Whirlpool (WHR). I should have seen that coming with all of the home repairs and upgrades, great housing numbers and easy credit terms. They beat top and bottom lines and the stock had closed $196.83 -3.10 (1.55%) but after the numbers traded up to $216 and the last is $205.75 +5.82 (2.91%). They had great metrics for their own brand as well as private label lines. The all-time high of $217.00 was way back in early 2015. Tesla beat and although their call hasn’t taken place yet, the stock had a pretty calm day (for TSLA), finishing $422.64 +.70 but after the beat the stock traded to $442.00 and the last is $436.95 +15.01 (3.5%). We’ll have to see if Elon has “one more thing” to announce! SNAP had great metrics and while it was $34.95 +6.50 this morning, it traded to $38.89 and finished $36.23 +7.78 (27.35%). CHIPOTLE (CMG) was a loser, although their numbers were good, with major continuing growth in digital and opening new stores. I personally order from there and get it delivered within 25-30 minutes (for free) and love it. After closing just under the all-time high at $1366.66 +18.19 it fell to $1250, before turning back up. I had a few members buying small odd-lots between -68 and -47, and the last is $1311.90 -36.47 (2.78%). New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.18, RCL -.89, NCHL -.18, AAL -.13, DAL -.58, LUV -.50, UAL -.51, HA -.20, ALK -.24 and XTN $61.04-.64 (1.04%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.31, BOS +.07, FLO -.22, CPB +.08, CAG -.03, MDLZ -.16, KHC -.55, CALM +.30, JJSF +1.89, SAFM +3.67, HRL +.69, SJM +.28, PPC +.17, KR unchanged, and a new addition ACI -.20, and PBJ $34.13 -.05 (.14%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB +1.25, ABBV -.85, REGN -6.63, ISRG -3.85, GILD -.34, MYL -.17, TEVA +.34, VRTX -2.63, BHC +.78, INCY -.47, ICPT -1.37, LABU -3.91, and IBB $134.19 -2.34 (1.71%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.16, CGC +.62, CRON +.15, GWPH +1.15, ACB +.25, CURLF +.25, KERN -.03, and MJ $11.55 +.21 (1.85%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -4.71, GD -1.85, TXT -.45, NOC -.,05, BWXT -.39, TDY -10.86, RTX -.74, and ITA $160.79 -2.54 (1.56%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.15, JWN +.14, KSS +1.31, DDS -.49, WMT +.60, TGT -1.72, TJX +.05, RL +1.50, and a new addition GPS -.42, and XRT $53.44 -.35 (.65%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL +39.88, AMZN -29.51, AAPL -.91, FB +10.91, NFLX 35.44, NVDA -4.20, TSLA +14.86, BABA -1.91, BIDU +5.02, CMG -34.47, CRM -1.57, BA -3.05, CAT -1.53, DIS +1.79 and XLK $119.10 -.21 (.18%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -5.15, JPM -1.06, BAC -.11, MS -1.17, C -.57, PNC -1.38, AIG +1.02, TRV +6.94, V +1.15, and XLF $24.60 -.21 (.85%). OIL, $40.03 -1.67, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. Last night I said, “While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions.” The stocks were lower today and there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $29.41 -.49 (1.64%). GOLD $1,929.50 +14.10 opened HIGHER and made a higher into the falling 50-day MA and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $12,755 +785. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and 250 today @$14.19, and we still have 250 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $14.29 +.99 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading October 16th BANKS BEAT FSLY PLUMMETS Today’s market was interesting…We had a great deal of information before the open with initial claims (slightly higher) and continuing claims (lower), strong results for Phili Fed and Empire State numbers. None of it mattered at the open and the DJIA was down as much as 333 before going sideways until a little after 11:00 when we started to gain a little traction on the upside. Around 3:30 we popped back above unchanged and finished -19.80 (.07%), NASDAQ -54.86 (.47%), S&P 500 -5.33 (.15%) while the Russell finished higher by 17.53 (1.06%) and the Transports +101.34 (.85%). A/D was 1.2:1 on NYSE and 6:5 on the NAZ. Volume was the lightest of the week, even though we covered a lot of distance. The DJIA was split 16:14 UP. No major movers in either direction. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/6b8Is89lGOg SECTORS: No individual stocks tonight. They are all covered in the Closing Comment…https://youtu.be/6b8Is89lGOg New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL +.13, RCL -.39, NCHL -.29, AAL -.07, DAL -.32, LUV -.30, UAL -1.22, HA -.11, ALK -.50, and XTYN $61.82 +.125 (.41%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.38, BGS +.36, FLO +.11, CPB -.30, CAG +.10, MDLZ -.15, KHC +.13, CALM +.54, JJSF +.41, SAFM +1.07. HRL +.24, SJM -.11, PPC -.05, KR +.21, and PBJ $34.65 +.09 (.26%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -7.02, ABBV -.71, REGN -12.12, ISRG -37.07, GILD -1.24, MYL +.19, TEVA -.01, VRTX -54.46, BHC +.64, INCY -2.57, ICPT +.47, LABU +.72, and IBB $139.50 -2.95 (2.07%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.36, CGC -.33, CRON -.15, GWPH -1.03, ACB -.19, CURLF +.02, KERN -.07, and MJ $11.21 -.28 (2.44%). DEFENSE was MIXED with LMT -4.22, GD -.64, TXT -.17, NOC -.07, BWXT +.20, TDY +1.86, RTX +.74, and ITA $164.34 +.76 (.46%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.15, JWN +.29, KSS .01, DDS +.08, WMT +.87, TGT +2.02, TJX unch., RL +2.87, UAA +.41, LULU +1.83, TPR +.75, CPRI +1.06, and a new addition GPS +.29, and XRT $54.88 +.81 (1.50%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL -6.64, AMZN -20.71, AAPL -.19, FB -4.42, NFLX -.45, NVDA -3.96, TSLA -14.55, BABA +.41, BIDU -5.57, CMG +25.35, CRM -3.23, BA +1.20, CAT +1.86, DIS +1.06, and XLK $121.93-.09 (.07%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS -2.03, JPM +1.63, BAC +.59, MS +.85, C +.64, PNC +.97, AIG +.35, TRV +.61, V -1.70, and XLF $24.97 +.19 (.77%). OIL, $41.24 +.10, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close today $30.89 +.37 (1.21%). GOLD $1,908.90 +1.60, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $11,595 +1.85. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.46 +.26 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading October 20th IBM MISSES REVENUES, AGAIN! INDEXES TURN LOWER AFTER AN UP OPEN Today’s market was a reversal of fortune after an up open and a downturn that took us down on the day, but moving sideways for a while before 2:00 when we started to accelerate lower finishing -410.89 (1.44%), Nasdaq -192.68 (1.65%), S&P 500 -56.89 (1.63%), the Russell -20.18 (1.24%), and the DJ Transport -128.34 (1.08%). Market internals were weak at 2.5:1 to the downside and the DJIA 29:1, with INTC the only gainer and up only .42. The losers were usual suspects with UNH, MSFT, and AMGN all paring 35+ DP’s off the average. Tomorrow we have earnings from ACI, LMT, MAN, PG, TRV, and NFLX. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/v-IVu8HCr7M SECTORS: The only major name with earnings today was IBM after the close. The earnings were in line with prior guidance but as has become the standard report for the company, they missed on revenues. After the numbers the stock fell from its close of $125.52-.41 the stock fell to $121.63 and finished $121.90 -4.03 (3.2%). Lennox (LII) reported earlier in the day and ran up to $297 before reversing and moving all the way back to $275.02 before a small rally to close $278.45 -9.77 (3.3%). New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.14, RCL +1.17, NCHL +.29, AAL +.19, DAL +.25, LUV +.33, UAL +1.54, HA +.82, ALK +.65, and XTN $60.54 -.60 (.97%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -1.40, FLO -.22, CPB -.31, CAG -.44, MDLZ -.80, KHC -.35, CALM +.15, JJSF -2.33, SAFM 3.85. HRL -.52, SJM 2.67, PPC -.38, KR -.19, and PBJ $34.22 -.36 1.04%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -11.24, ABBV -1.69, REGN -16.60, ISRG -16.56, GILD -1.11, MYL -.29, TEVA -.06, VRTX +2.92, BHC +.19, INCY -1.76, ICPT -2.62, LABU -3.20, and IBB $138.00 -1.71 (1.22%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.91, CGC +1.91, CRON +.32, GWPH +.60, ACB +.64, CURLF +.33, KERN -.38 and MJ $11.62 +.52 (4.68%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -1.00, GD -1.28, TXT -.78, NOC -4.44, BWXT -.99, TDY +1.10, RTX -.10, and ITA $166.70 +1.14 (.69%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.04, JWN -.63, KSS -.66, DDS -2.04, WMT -1.10, TGT +.10, TJX -1.52, RL -.43, UAA +.35, LULU -9.96, TPR +.53, CPRI +.25, and a new addition GPS -.22, and XRT $53.68 -.60 (1.11%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL 31.20, AMZN -43.71, AAPL -1.99, FB -2.99, NFLX +4.82, NVDA -8.86, TSLA -7.07, BABA -.44, BIDU -.62, CMG +7.20, CRM -2.05, BA +.85, CAT -.17, DIS -2.01, and XLK $119.55 -1.57 (1.30%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +.24, JPM -1.40, BAC -.42, MS -.70, C -.19, PNC -1.49, AIG -.13, TRV -1.42, V -2.01, and XLF $24.61 -.38 (1.52%). OIL, $41.06 -.06, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close today $29.55 -.64 (2.12%). GOLD $1,911.70 +5.30 opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $11,755 +395. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.82 +.39 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots
OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar. Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone. It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c. As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon. TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome. DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
For Trading October 14th NASDAQ HOLDS ON BANKS BEAT BUT FALTER JNJ & LLY “Pause” Trials Yesterday I used the headline, “NOT AS GOOD AS IT LOOKS” and today’s action was a bit more appropriate versus the internals. Several banks reported this morning and even though they easily beat and started on the upside, by midday they faltered and finished lower. The DJIA was -157.71 (.55%), NASDAQ -12.36 (.10%), S&P 500 -22.29 >53%), the Russell -12.21 (.74%) and the Transports the biggest loser -97.22 (.82%). Internals were about what you’d expect at 2:1 down NYSE and 1.7:1 on NAZ. The DJIA was exactly the opposite of yesterday with 23 down and 7 higher. BA was the biggest loser paring $34 DP’s and DIS and HD were the biggest gainers adding $27 and 23 respectively. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/CO-kgUMupeo Todays interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT will be available tomorrow. Joe has a great company and as soon as I get the link I will post it here, on What’sApp and in the Discord room !!! SECTORS: There was good news for the banks but by midday it just didn’t matter. Both JPM and C had good reports and were higher early, but both closed near the lows of the day, in negative territory. DIS announced a reorganization of the company to stress the streaming business and although it was higher last night and this morning, it still managed a net gain on the day. NFLX is discontinuing their “try us for a month for free” and the market loved it sending the stock back to a triple top that breaks out with a close over $556.55 My bet is that it will go thru shortly. TSLA also looks to me like it wants to breakout again, but just a note of caution, they both report next week, NFLX a week from today and TSLA a week from tomorrow. Geez, I hate earnings season! New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.96, RCL -8.75, NCLH -1.33, AAL -.65, DAL -101, LUV -.25, UAL -1.20, HA -.20, ALK -.62, and XTN $61.05 -.64 (1.03%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.01, BGS +.11, FLO -.01, CPB +.68, CAG -.07, MDLZ +.25, CALM -.58, JJSF -1.761, SAFM +5.73, HRL +.54, SJM +.17, PPC -.08, KR +.12, and PBJ $34.84 +.28 (.79%). BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB -.02, ABBV -.21, REGN +5.45, ISRG -.32, GILD unchanged, MYL -.28, TEVA -.08, VRTX +1.49, BHC -.35, INCY -.96, ICPT +.88, LABU + 3.04, and IBB $144.80 +1.15 (.80%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.40, CGC -1.09, CRON -.20, GWPH -.38, ACB -.18, CURLF +.06, KERN -.03, and MJ $11.62 -.26 (2.19%). DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT +1.03, GD -1.49, TXT -.88, NOC -2.91, BWXT -.98, TDY -7.51, RTX -1.03, and ITA $162.68 -2.16 (1.31%). RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.09, JWN -.20, 8.35, TPR -.23, CPRI -1.24, and a new addition GPS +.04, and XRT $54.52 +.47 (.87%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +2.48, AMZN +7.07, AAPL -3.11, FB +1.19, NFLX +14.19, NVDA +2.36, TSLA +5.62, BABA +2.76, BIDU -.77, CMG +47.07, CRM +2.19, BA -4.96, CAT -.47, DIS +4.48, and XLK $123.09 -.37 (.30%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.62, JPM -1.49, BAC -.71, MS -.27, C -2.15, PNC -5.25, AIG -.59, TRV -3.65, V -1.71, and XLF $25.02 -.49 (1.92%). OIL, $40.20 +.77, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close +2.17. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $30.39 -.48 (1.55%). GOLD $1,894.60 -34.30, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $11440 -190. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.39 -.28 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life. Bitcoin stock to flow model live chart. This page is inspired by Medium article Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity written by Twitter user PlanB. Stock to flow graph. USD USD AUD CAD CHF CNY DKK EUR GBP HUF JPY KRW NZD RUB SEK TRY ZAR. Current s/f (10d/463d) 54,6 / 31,8. Current model price (10d/463d) 109.132 / 17.707. USD Next halving estimate. 23.04.2024 (1.276) Last update. 25.10.2020 ... Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (live) Stand: 3. September 2020 in Daten. Bitcoin "Rainbow" Price Chart (Log Scale) EUR USD. Maximum Bubble Territory Sell. Seriously, SELL! FOMO intensifies Is this a bubble? HODL! Still cheap Accumulate BUY! Basically a Fire Sale. The Rainbow Chart is not investment advice! Past performance is not an indication of future results. The Rainbow Chart is meant to be be a ... Beobachten Sie live den Bitcoin / Dollar Chart, folgen Sie den BTCUSD Kursen in Echtzeit und erhalten Sie die Bitcoin Kurshistorie. Überprüfen Sie die technischen Analysen und Prognosen für Bitcoin. Follow the Bitcoin price live with the interactive, real-time chart and read our expert articles on the latest BTC news, forecast and technical analysis.
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