Bitcoin's volatility days are on pause... even post the ...

12-20 19:13 - 'Trading will be enabled on the Bcrash-USD order book at 11am PST. If significant volatility is observed, GDAX will pause trading.' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/proji removed from /r/Bitcoin within 7-17min

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lets gooooo
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Trading will be enabled on the Bcrash-USD order book at 11am PST. If significant volatility is observed, GDAX will pause trading.
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Author: proji
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Trading will be enabled on the Bcrash-USD order book at 11am PST. If significant volatility is observed, GDAX will pause trading. /r/Bitcoin

Trading will be enabled on the Bcrash-USD order book at 11am PST. If significant volatility is observed, GDAX will pause trading. /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/23/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 23rd 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Updated as of 3:30 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/22/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 23rd 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
(JOBLESS NUMBERS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 23rd 2020
NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

KYC is absolutely not acceptable for MakerDAO!

I've heard that founder of MakerDAO is not strictly against KYC. I have a message to whole community and specifically to a founder of MakerDAO Rune Christensen. I will explain using concrete examples why having KYC in MakerDAO is a grave mistake and it will lead to MakerDAO fork.
Many people in the first world never actually understand why financial privacy and financial inclusion is important. Even people (in the first world) who seemingly supportive of such ideas are not able to provide any concrete examples of why it's actually important.
Unfortunately, I was born in a "wrong" country (Uzbekistan) and I experienced first hand what financial exclusion actually means. I know first hand that annoying feeling when you read polite, boilerplate rejection letter from financial institution based in first world. So I had to become practical libertarian. I'm going to give you concrete examples of financial discrimination against me. Then I'm going to explain fundamental reasons why it happens. And finally, I'm going to explain my vision for DAI.
Back in 2005, I lived in Uzbekistan. I had an idea to invest in US stocks. I was very naive and I didn't know anything about investing, compliance, bank transfers, KYC etc. All I knew is nice long term charts of US stocks and what P/E means. I didn't contact any US brokerage but I checked information about account opening and how to transfer money there. I approached local bank in Uzbekistan and asked how to transfer money to Bank of New York. Banker's face was like - WOW, WTF?!?! They asked me to go to private room to talk with senior manager. Senior manager of local bank in Uzbekistan asked me why I wanted to transfer money to US. They told me that it's absolutely impossible to transfer money to US/EU and pretty much anywhere. I approached nearly every local bank in the town and they told me the same.
In 2012, I already lived in Moscow and acquired Russian citizenship. I got back to my old idea - investing in US stocks. I called to many US brokerages and all of them politely rejected me. Usually when I called I asked them if I can open an account with them. They told me to hold on line. After long pause, I was able to speak with "senior" support who politely explain me that Russia in their list of restricted countries and they can't open an account for me. Finally, I was able to open an account with OptionsXpress. Next challenge was to convince local Russian bank to transfer money to US. Back then in 2012, I was able to get permission to do so. So you might say - is this happy end?
Fast forwarding US brokerage story to 2017, OptionsXpress was acquired by Charles Schwab. I was notified that my OptionsXpress account will be migrated to Charles Schwab platform. In 2017, I already lived in the Netherlands (but still having Russian citizenship). I wasn't happy with my stupid job in the Netherlands. I called Charles Schwab and asked if I quit my job in the Netherlands and have to return to Russia, what will happen with my account. Schwab told me that they will restrict my account, so I can't do anything except closing my account. So even if I was long term customer of OptionsXpress, Charles Schwab is not fully okay with me.
Going back to 2013, I still lived in Russia. I had another idea. What if I quit my job and build some SAAS platform (or whatever) and sell my stuff to US customers. So I need some website which accept US credit cards. I contacted my Russian bank (who previously allowed me to transfer money to OptionsXpress) about steps to make in order to accept US credit cards in Russia. I've been told explicitly in email that they won't allow me to accept US credit cards under any circumstances.
Back then I still believed in "the free west". So I thought - no problem, I will just open bank account abroad and do all operations from my foreign account. I planned vacation in Hong Kong. And Hong Kong is freest economy in the world. Looks like it's right place to open bank account. I contacted HSBC Hong Kong via email. Their general support assured me that I can open bank account with them if I'm foreigner. I flew to Hong Kong for vacation and visited HSBC branch. Of course, they rejected me. But they recommended me to visit last floor in their HQ building, they told me that another HSBC branch specializes on opening bank accounts for foreigners. I went there and they said minimum amount to open bank account is 10 mil HKD (1.27 mil USD). Later I learned that it's called private banking.
When I relocated to the Netherlands, I asked ABN Amro staff - what's happen with my bank account if I quit/lose my job in the Netherlands and have to return back to Russia. I've been told that I can't have my dutch bank account if I go back to Russia even if I already used their bank for 2+ years.
I still had idea that I would like to quit my job and do something for myself. The problem is that I'm Russian citizen and I don't have any residency which is independent from my employment. So if I quit my job in the Netherlands, I have to return back to Russia. I wanted to see how I would get payments from US/EU customers. I found Stripe Atlas, it's so exciting, they help you to incorporate in US, and even help with banking, all process of receiving credit card payments is very smooth. But as usual in my case, there is a catch - Russia in their list of restricted countries.
Speaking of centralized compliance-friendly (e.g. KYC) crypto exchanges. This year I live and work in Hong Kong. Earlier this year, I thought it would be nice to have an account at local crypto exchange in Hong Kong so I can quickly transfer money from my bank account in Hong Kong to crypto exchange using FPS (local payment system for fast bank transfers). What could go wrong? After all Hong Kong is freest economy in the world, right? I submitted KYC documents to crypto exchange called Weever including copy of my Hong Kong ID as they requested. They very quickly responded that they need copy of my passport as well. I submitted copy of my Russian passport. This time they got silent. After a few days, they sent me email saying that Russia is on the US Office of Foreign Assets Control sanction list, so they just require me to fill a form about source of the funds. I told them that the source of my funds is salary, my Hong Kong bank can confirm that along with my employment contract. They got very silent after I sent them a filled form. After a week of silence I asked them - when my account get approved? They said that their compliance office will review my application soon. And they got very silent again. I waited for two or three weeks. Then I asked them again. And I immediately got email with title - Rejection for Weever Account Opening. And text of email was:
We are sorry to inform you that Weever may not be able to accept your account opening application at this stage.
Exactly the same situation I had with one crypto exchange in Europe back in 2017. Luckily I have accounts at other crypto exchanges including Gemini, one of most compliance obsessed exchange in the world. Although I don't keep my money there because I can't trust them, who knows what might come into head of their compliance officer one sunny day.
By the way, I'm living and working outside of Russia for quite a few years. The situation with crypto exchanges is much worse for those who still living in Russia.
I give you a few other examples of financial discrimination is not related to troubles with my Russian citizenship.
Back in 2018, I still lived in the Netherlands. I logged in into my brokerage account just to buy US ETFs as I always do - SPY and QQQ. I placed my order and it failed to fill. I thought it's just a technical problem with my brokerage account. After a few failed attempts to send buy orders for SPY and QQQ, I contacted their support. What they told me was shocking and completely unexpected. They said I'm not permitted to buy US ETFs anymore as EU resident because EU passed a law to protect retail investors. So as a EU resident I'm allowed to be exposed to more risk by buying individual US stocks but I'm not allowed to reduce my risk by buying SPY because ... EU wants to protect me. I felt final result of new law. By the way, on paper their law looks fine.
And the final example. It's a known fact that US public market become less attractive in recent decades. Due to heavy regulatory burden companies prefer to go public very late. So if successful unicorn startup grows from its inception/genesis to late adoption, company's valuation would be 3-5 orders of orders of magnitude. For example, if valuation of successful company at inception is 1 Mil USD, then at its very latest stage it's valuation would be 10 Bil USD. So we have 10'000 times of growth. In the best case scenario, company would go public at 1 Bil USD 5-10 years before reaching its peak 10 Bil USD. So investors in private equity could enjoy 1000 fold growth and just leave for public only last 10 fold growth stretched in time. In the worst case scenario, company would go public at 10 Bil USD, i.e. at its historical peak. But there are well known platforms to buy shares of private companies, one of such platforms is Forge Global. You can buy shares of almost all blue chip startups. You can even invest in SpaceX! But as always, there is a catch - US government wants to protect not just US citizens but all people in the world (sounds ridiculous, right?). US law requires you to have 1 Mil USD net worth or 200'000 USD annual income if you want to buy shares of non-public company. So if you are high-net worth individual you can be called "accredited investor". Funny thing is that the law intends to protect US citizens but even if you are not US citizen and never even lived in US, this law is still applies to you in practice. So if you are "poor loser", platforms like Forge Global will reject you.
So high-net worth individuals have access and opportunity to Bitcoin-style multi-magnitude growth every 5-10 years. Contrary to private equity markets, US public markets is low risk/low return type of market. If you have small amount of capital, it's just glorified way to protect yourself from inflation plus some little return on top. It's not bad, US public market is a still great way to store your wealth. But I'm deeply convinced that for small capital you must seek fundamentally different type of market - high risk/high return. It's just historical luck that Bitcoin/Ethereum/etc were available for general public from day one. But in reality, viral/exponential growth is happening quite often. It's just you don't have access to such type of markets due to regulatory reasons.
I intentionally described these examples of financial discrimination in full details as I experienced them because I do feel that vast majority of people in the first world honestly think that current financial system works just fine and only criminals and terrorists are banned. In reality that's not true at all. 99.999% of innocent people are completely cut off from modern financial system in the name of fighting against money laundering.
Here is a big picture why it's happening. There are rich countries (so called western world) and poor countries (so called third world). Financial wall is carefully built by two sides. Authoritarian leaders of poor countries almost always want full control over their population, they don't like market economy, and since market forces don't value their crappy legal system (because it works only for close friends of authoritarian leader) they must implement strict capital control. Otherwise, all capital will run away from their country because nobody really respects their crappy legal system. It only has value under heavy gun of government. Only friends of authoritarian leader can move their money out of country but not you.
Leaders of rich countries want to protect their economy from "dirty money" coming from third world. Since citizens of poor countries never vote for leaders of rich countries nobody really cares if rich country just ban everyone from poor country. It's the most lazy way to fight against money laundering - simply ban everyone from certain country.
Actually if you look deeper you will see that rich countries very rarely directly ban ordinary people from third world. Usually, there is no such law which doesn't allow me to open bank account somewhere in Europe as non-EU resident. What's really happens is that US/EU government implement very harsh penalties for financial institutions if anything ever goes wrong.
So what's actually happens is that financial institutions (banks, brokerages etc) do de-risking. This is the most important word you must know about traditional financial system!
So if you have wrong passport, financial institution (for example) bank from rich country just doesn't want to take any risks dealing with you even if you are willing to provide full documentation about your finances. It's well known fact that banks in Hong Kong, Europe, US like to unexpectedly shutdown accounts of thousands innocent businesses due to de-risking.
So it's actually de-risking is the real reason why I was rejected so many times by financial institutions in the first world!!! It's de-risking actually responsible for banning 99.999% of innocent people. So governments of rich democratic countries formally have clean hands because they are not banning ordinary people from third world directly. All dirty job is done by financial institutions but governments are well aware of that, it's just more convenient way to discriminate. And nobody actually cares! Ordinary citizens in rich countries are never exposed to such problems and they really don't care about people in third world, after all they are not citizens of US/EU/UK/CH/CA/HK/SG/JP/AU/NZ.
And now are you ready for the most hilarious part? If you are big corrupt bureaucrat from Russia you are actually welcome by the first world financial institutions! All Russian's junta keep their stolen money all across Europe and even in US. You might wonder how this is possible if the western financial system is so aggressive in de-risking.
Here is a simple equation which financial institution should solve when they decide whether to open an account for you or not:
Y - R = net profit
Where:
Y - how much profit they can make with you;
R - how much regulatory risk they take while working with you;
That's it! It's very simple equation. So if you are really big junta member from Russia you are actually welcome according to this equation. Banks have special name for serving (ultra) high-net worth individuals, it's called private banking. It's has nothing to do with the fact that bank is private. It's just fancy name for banking for rich.
So what's usually happen in real world. Some Estonian or Danish bank got caught with large scale money laundering from Russia. European leaders are ashamed in front of their voters. They implement new super harsh law against money laundering to keep their voters happy. Voters are ordinary people, they don't care about details of new regulations. So banks get scared and abruptly shutdown ALL accounts of Russian customers. And European voters are happy.
Modern money laundering laws are like shooting mouse in your house using bazooka! It's very efficient to kill mouse, right?
Now imagine world without financial borders. It's hard to do so because we are all get so used to current status quo of traditional financial system. But with additional effort you can start asking questions - if Internet economy is so global and it doesn't really matter where HQ of startup is located, why they are all concentrated in just a few tiny places like Silicon Valley and ... well, that's mostly it if you count the biggest unicorns!
Another question would be - why so many talented russian, indian, chinese programmers just go to the same places like San Francisco, London and make super rich companies like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple to get even richer? If all you need is laptop and access to internet, why you don't see any trade happening between first and third world?
Well actually there is a trade between first and third world but it's not exactly what I want to see. Usually third world countries sell their natural resources through giant corporations to the first world.
So it's possible to get access to the first world market from third world but this access usually granted only to big and established companies (and usually it means not innovative).
Unicorns are created through massive parallel experiment. Every week bunch of new startups are created in Silicon Valley. Thousands and thousands startups are created in Silicon Valley with almost instant access to global market. Just by law of large numbers you have a very few of them who later become unicorns and dominate the world.
But if you have wrong passport and you are located in "wrong" country where every attempt to access global market is very costly, then you most likely not to start innovative startup in the first place. In the best case scenario, you just create either local business or just local copy-paste startup (copied from the west) oriented on (relatively small) domestic market. Obviously in such setup it's predictable that places like Silicon Valley will have giant advantage and as a result all unicorns get concentrated in just a few tiny places.
In the world without financial barriers there will be much smaller gap between rich and poor countries. With low barrier of entry, it won't be a game when winner takes all.
Whole architecture of decentralized cryptocurrencies is intended to remove middle man and make transactions permissionless. Governments are inherently opposite to that, they are centralized and permissioned. Therefore, decentralized cryptocurrencies are fundamentally incompatible with traditional financial system which is full of middle mans and regulations (i.e. permissions).
Real value of crypto are coming from third world, not the first world. People are buying crypto in rich countries just want to invest. Their financial system and their fiat money are more or less already working for them. So there is no immediate urgency to get rid of fiat money in the first world. So the first world citizens buying crypto on centralized KYCd exchanges are essentially making side bet on the success of crypto in third world.
Real and natural environment of cryptocurrencies is actually dark OTC market in places like Venezuela and China.
But cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have a big limitation to wide adoption in third world - high volatility.
So the real target audience is oppressed (both by their own government and by first world governments) ordinary citizens of third world countries yet they are least who can afford to take burden of high volatility.
Right now, Tether is a big thing for dark markets across the world (by the way, dark market doesn't automatically imply bad!). But Tether soon or later be smashed by US/EU regulators.
The only real and working permissionless stable cryptocurrency (avoiding hyped word - stablecoin) is DAI.
DAI is the currency for post-Tether world to lead dark OTC market around the world and subvert fiat currencies of oppressive third world governments.
Once DAI become de-facto widespread currency in shadow economy in all of third world, then it will be accepted (after many huge push backs from governments) as a new reality. I'm talking about 10-20+ years time horizon.
But if MakerDAO chooses the route of being compliance friendly then DAI will lose its real target audience (i.e. third world).
I can not imagine US/EU calmly tolerate someone buying US stocks and using as a collateral to issue another security (i.e. DAI) which is going to be traded somewhere in Venezuela! You can not be compliance friendly and serve people in Venezuela.
Facebook's Libra was stupidest thing I've seen. It's extremely stupid to ask permission from the first world regulators to serve third world and create borderless economy. Another stupid thing is to please third world governments as well. For example, Libra (if ever run) will not serve Indian, Chinese, Venezuelan people. Who is then going to use stupid Libra? Hipsters in Silicon Valley? Why? US dollars are good enough already.
submitted by omgcoin to MakerDAO [link] [comments]

Is it legal to shut down a Bitcoin exchange while the price is falling?

Is it legal to shut down a Bitcoin exchange while the price is falling? submitted by lingben to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

In the Shade of Afternoon | Monthly FI Portfolio Update – August 2019

It is idle, having planted an acorn in the morning, to expect that afternoon to sit in the shade of the oak.
Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, Wind, Sand and Stars
This is my thirty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19%, or a nominal return of 7.19%, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $750 246 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $43 194 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $79 500 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 418 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $102 977 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $20 184 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $258 984 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 982 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $14 056 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 868 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $104 149 Secured physical gold – $16 759 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $19 968 Bitcoin – $158 330 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 223 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 104 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 395 Total value: $1 712 337 (-$2 653)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.5% (4.5% under) Global shares – 22.2% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.1% Total international shares – 27.7% (2.3% under) Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 5.1% International bonds – 10.1% Total bonds – 15.1% (0.1% over) Gold – 7.1% Bitcoin – 9.2% Gold and alternatives – 16.3% (6.3% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio experienced a small decline this month, with an overall decrease of $2 600. This movement comes after a strong period of expansion through the first half of the year in the value of the portfolio.
[Chart]
As with last month, the fall occurs despite some significant new investments being made, meaning the absolute size of the decline is somewhat obscured. Renewed concerns about global trade and a relative weakening in the outlook for future earnings played a significant role in the overall movement of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Once again movements this month within the portfolio have been relatively limited in terms of the size of the portfolio.
Equity holdings have declined by around $28 000 when contributions are accounted for, whilst appreciation in the price of gold has offset just over a third of that loss. In fact, despite no recent purchases, the gold component of the portfolio is currently at the highest nominal value it has ever held.
On the topic of gold, this 2013 paper (pdf) provides a comprehensive and skeptical empirical analysis of the range of claims made to support holding gold, including tracing the real gold value of average soldiers pay across 2000 years.
This month has seen a continuing 'averaging in' of the capital from July distributions. These have been directed to purchases of Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This is to bring the allocation closer to my original targets - with my Australian shares allocation currently further underweight than the international shares allocation. Psychologically, a weakening Australian dollar has also made purchasing unhedged international shares more problematic.
Risk, volatility, markets and economies
There has been significant market volatility this month, and discussion around the future of Australian and global growth in the midst of trade tensions between US and China.
In such times, something to remember as this St Louis Federal Reserve piece points out, is that the economy and sharemarket are not the same thing. This means that bad (or good) news for one, does not necessarily imply anything about the other. Missing this has the potential to lead to overconfident investment actions predicated on assumptions of future national economic trends (which will themselves most likely be priced into equity markets well before any retail investor reading the news arrives).
The volatility in equity markets has brought out many well-intentioned injunctions to remain calm and fixed on the objective of contributing capital with a long-term view in mind.
At times, however, this wise advice can shade into a form of near complacency - for example, for people to invest confident in the knowledge that long-term returns are (almost) guaranteed. No doubt this is generally good advice, directed at easing particularly new investors' concerns about investing at the "wrong" time, and reducing the potential damage from selling into falling markets due to panic.
Even as I continue to invest amidst volatility, it is important to reflect on Elroy Dimson's definition that 'risk means more things can happen than will happen', and to consider that the history of equity markets available to us provides only a basis for sound conclusions around what has happened, not what could happen. This is the definition of the risk assumed in markets by investors.
None of this is to suggest that starting, saving and regular investing with a view to one's individual risk tolerances are not the most important steps in the path to FI. There is a need to pause, however, and acknowledge that at times common financial independence investment precepts bear a disconcerting passing resemblance to the declaration and mathematical proof offered by famous stock promoter Jacob J Raskob in the well-known Ladies Home Journal (pdf) article exactly 90 years ago. This declaration was that with a steady investment in equities, based on the past patterns of returns, 'everybody ought to be rich'.
Nearly 90 years happened to be just before the Great Depression devastated equity markets and employment prospects alike, and US equity investors were behind in nominal terms for around 25 years. Interestingly, however, this New York Times article argues that deflation, higher dividend yields and impacts from changes in the Dow index composition could theoretically have shortened the real losses of any investor to just 4.5 years, provided they possessed the resources and fortitude to hold on to average stocks.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 107.1% 145.4% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 86.5% 117.4% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 98.3% 133.4% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.4%
Summary
Progress against my goals and benchmarks has been static this month, with the exception of the 'total expenditure' benchmark. My detailed review of expenditure last month identified that I could lower this to recognise some double-counting of fixed expenses, and this has meant a leap forward in progress in that aim of 5.8 per cent. This moves the clock forward appreciably for achieving that benchmark.
As a general rule, it is always later than we think. For example, on a recent lunch time walk it occurred to me that if my progress to my current FI target of $1.98 million is considered in terms of the length of an ordinary working day, it is currently approximately 3.50pm in the afternoon. Quite late, and just over an hour until heading home.
This perspective, of being further towards the tail end than expected, is explored fully and powerfully in the blog Wait but Why here. It helps frame the remaining journey. Viewed in this way, wishing time away seems less useful and fitting than seeking to fill the remaining time with as much meaning, learning, knowledge transmission and patience as feasible. Yet it also explains why in a FI context at this stage sharp changes in investing approach, or commencing new 'side hustles' have limited appeal.
Despite it being late afternoon from this one perspective, there are a couple of other considerations or viewpoints. One is the potentially deceptive role of compounding later in the journey, which means that - at least in a stylised world of 'smooth returns' - the end goal is actually likely closer than any purely linear measure would suggest.
The other counterpoint to this is that while in my case the absolute journey to FI has involved serious investments over around 18 years, this is not the whole story. Viewed in terms of the average 'age' of dollars actually contributed or invested, the journey of the average dollar in the portfolio has been shorter.
In fact, in terms of dollars contributed, around 50 per cent have been contributed since January 2016. So, in some ways, it is more akin to mid-morning for the portfolio as a whole, meaning perhaps that I should not reasonably expect to shade myself under the oak tree just yet.
Finally, this month also saw Pat the Shuffler emerge from a short hiatus and provide a honest and well-argued insight into his rethink on investment options between LICs and ETFs. I also enjoyed reading the start of another Australian FI voice at Fire for One.
The past few months has also had many interesting podcasts related to FI - from The Escape Artists' Chris Reining on Equity Mates, to a really fascinating practical ChooseFI episode on David Sawyer's on the UK Path to FI. On the slightly more technical and future focused side of finance, the outgoing address of the Bank of England's Governor to the Jackson Hole central bankers gathering provides much food for thought on current and longer term monetary and currency issues, particularly as global bond rates continue to cross the 'zero-bound' into uncharted territory.
The post and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Kin Community FAQ, Guidelines, & Ecosystem Directory

Kin Community FAQ, Guidelines, & Ecosystem Directory
Kin FAQ
  1. What is Kin?
  2. Where can I earn & spend Kin?
  3. Where can I buy Kin?
  4. Where can I store Kin?
  5. Why is the total supply so large?
  6. Why isn't Kin on [xyz] exchange? When will it be?
  7. Is there any update on [Y] announcement? Can you speak on [insert rumor here]? When will we be able to do [Z]?
  8. How can I contact the developers / support staff of [insert app name here]?
  9. How can I contact the Kin Foundation?
  10. How can I track transactions on the Kin blockchain?
  11. I still have ERC-20 based Kin (on the Ethereum blockchain), how can I migrate?
  12. I heard the SEC is suing Kik, is that true? What does it mean for Kin?
  13. How was Kin distributed at launch and how does it enter circulation?
  14. I want to integrate Kin into my software project. How do I get started? Where is the developer community?
  15. How can I keep up with the latest developments in Kin?
1 - What is Kin?
Kin is money for the digital world. It can be earned and spent across an entire ecosystem of applications, thanks to the blockchain. If you don’t know what that means, don’t worry; you don’t have to. Kin is designed to be accessible by a broad mainstream audience- computer science degree not required. By bringing together developers and users of all kinds to build in a shared new digital economy, we can create a more fair playing field; one in which the developers and content creators that build these virtual realities are rewarded based on their contributions, not harvested for their personal data and attention against their will. If you’d like to learn more about Kin, here are some resources to get you started:
· Kin Website: https://www.kin.org/
· Kin Whitepaper: https://www.kin.org/static/files/Kin_Whitepaper_V1_English.pdf
· The Vision for Kin: https://medium.com/kinblog/the-vision-for-kin-6ee048a3a979
· Announcement of Kin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5le2n230oTk
· Introduction to Kin (by u/kyzermf): https://medium.com/hackernoon/introduction-to-kin-universal-virtual-currency-for-apps-ea6464225ffc
2 - Where can I earn & spend Kin?
Kin is going live in a growing number of apps. To see which ones, you can check out the Ecosystem Directory below, or keep up with some of these resources:
· via Kin Website: https://www.kin.org/kin-apps/
· Apps with Kin (by u/Neliss31) https://appswithkin.com/index.php
· Kin Appz (by u/hepays) https://www.kinappz.com/
3 - Where can I buy Kin?
In addition to the ecosystem of apps available to earn Kin, you can also purchase it in larger amounts. It is currently available for purchase on cryptocurrency exchanges listed here:
· CoinMarketCap Exchanges List for Kin https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/kin/#markets
Note that these are independent organizations and therefore only they can provide guarantees on customer service and experience, please do your due diligence in navigating and utilizing these exchanges. Also note that cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile, trade at your own risk. Kin is money for the digital world, not a stablecoin.
4 - Where can I store Kin?
While using Kin inside of apps, make sure to create a backup of your wallet when possible. It is not recommended that you store large amounts of Kin in your user wallets, and instead seek out a more robust solution. There are lots of subtle differences to the kinds of wallets and how to use them, including trade-offs in security vs convenience. Make sure to do your research and be careful when handling your hard-earned Kin:
Offline (“Cold”) Storage:
· My Kin Wallet https://www.mykinwallet.org/
· Guide: Creating A Paper Wallet for Storing Your Kin Safely Offline (by u/TheRealChaseEB) https://www.reddit.com/KinFoundation/comments/bylk0creating_a_paper_wallet_for_storing_your_kin/
Hardware Wallets:
· Ledger Hardware Wallets (works with My Kin Wallet) https://www.ledger.com/
Software Wallets:
· Trust Wallet (Mobile) https://trustwallet.com/
· Atomic Wallet (Mobile & Desktop) https://atomicwallet.io/
· Guarda Wallet (Mobile & Desktop) https://guarda.co/
· Magnum Wallet (Web) https://magnumwallet.co/
5 - Why is the total supply so large?
Kin is meant to be transacted by a large number of users in manageable denominations, just like physical money.
6 - Why isn’t Kin on [xyz] exchange? When will it be?
A healthy market for developers and users is essential to all stakeholders who want to build a vibrant economy around Kin as a currency. That said, a number of blockers have prevented further listings from happening; for example we needed to first have a unified & functional product and underlying technology before pursuing secondary markets. In addition to this there has been regulatory uncertainty surrounding the listing of digital assets in the United States including Kin specifically, especially since the filing of a misleading legal complaint by the US SEC. Due to this, the Kin Foundation is pressing on in other markets on behalf of the ecosystem to try and facilitate more platforms for everyone to buy & use Kin in their different ways. We do not know when Kin will be listed on exchanges, and anyone who does cannot say due to legal and security agreements.
7 - Is there any update on [Y] announcement? Can you speak on [insert rumor here]? When will we be able to do [Z]?
While we believe in maintaining the utmost transparency wherever possible, we will typically announce things as they are ready and report on progress as it becomes pertinent, as to not create unfounded hype and adhere to internal strategies. While it might be tempting to seek constant updates, please remember that answering questions takes time, and everyone is busy working hard to actually build the things we are all excited to see. We will do our best to keep everyone updated on the things they care about. We do not comment on rumors and we may be constricted in our ability to communicate at any given moment on ongoing internal affairs that may fall within certain legal or strategic confines.
8 - How can I contact the developers / support of [insert app name here]?
Please refer to the Kin Ecosystem directory below.
9 - How can I contact the Kin Foundation?
You can email us at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) , or if you’d like to DM a specific representative or discuss something in an open setting you can also reach out to us and the community here.
Here are some relevant contacts that represent Kin Foundation,Kin Tel Aviv, & Kin San Francisco in the community:
Community u/benji5656
Communications u/kevin_from_kin
Developer Experience (Kin.org, Kin SDK, and Kin Developer Program) u/therealchaseeb
Blockchain (Core infrastructure of the Kin Blockchain) u/gadi_sr
Ecosystem (High touch integrations with mature developers) u/rinatbogin
KRE (The incentive protocol that drives the growth of the ecosystem) u/oradwe
UX Research u/YonatanDub
Kin San Francisco u/matty_hibs
10 - How can I track transactions on the Kin blockchain?
Here are some resources for monitoring the blockchain:
· via Kin Website https://www.kin.org/blockchainExplorer
· Kin Explorer (by u/Chancity) https://v2.kinexplorer.com/explorer
· Kin Bubbles (by u/kidwonder) https://kin-bubbles.herokuapp.com/
· Kin Transaction Visualizer (by u/sednax) http://bitcoin.interaqt.nl/kin.html
11 - I still have ERC-20 based Kin (on the Ethereum blockchain), how can I migrate?
Follow the directions laid out here: https://www.kin.org/migration/
12 - I heard the SEC is suing Kik, is that true? What does it mean for the Kin Foundation?
It’s true. After cooperating with an investigation and multiple attempts to reach an amicable settlement, the SEC filed a disparaging and mischaracterized complaint against Kik for not registering the initial sale of Kin as a security offering. Kik is fighting back. They are in a unique position to take on this case, however, unlike the initial Wells Notice, the Kin Ecosystem Foundation is not named in the complaint.
As noted by the Blockchain Association:
When we look at the Kik investigation, we can tell from the Wells Notice that the SEC originally looked at both Kik Interactive and the Kin Foundation. However, when the complaint was issued, it only focused on the offering of Kin in the September 2017 token sale, not Kin in the ecosystem today. The fact that the SEC investigated the Kin Foundation, but decided not to pursue a complaint is good news for developers, platforms, and others in the ecosystem who use these tokens because it separates the question of the token sale from the activities in the ecosystem since then. ("What the SEC-Kik complaint didn’t cover — and why this is good news for the crypto community")
As the legal battle rages on, the foundation will help Kik to amplify their defense as they correct the record publicly; but also focus on the development of the ecosystem which will continue beyond the SEC battle regardless. Expect ongoing updates as the fight continues to unfold publicly.
**Update**: - Kik has put together DefendCrypto, a fund dedicated to legal initiatives that benefit the cryptocurrency industry, so that companies that don't have the same resources can stand up against unfair regulation in fights of their own. Visit DefendCrypto.org to learn more and join the fight to defend innovation and participation in the cryptocurrency industry in the United States.
- Kik Answers SEC Complaint: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kik-answers-sec-complaint-300897681.html?tc=portal_CAP Kik has filed and published a 130 page, paragraph-by-paragraph refutation of the SEC's allegations.
- Additional Resources: Interview w/ Eileen Lyon, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer at Kik https://medium.com/kinblog/kin-foundation-asks-interview-w-eileen-lyon-general-counsel-and-chief-compliance-officer-at-kik-bbcf3b7a6961
13 - How was Kin distributed at launch and how does it enter circulation?
The Kin Foundation sold 1 trillion (10% of total supply) in a token distribution event in September 2017 that was split between a pre-sale (487.80 billion sold) and a public sale (512.20 billion sold). Half of the tokens sold during the pre-sale (244 billion) are subject to a one-year lock-up period. Kik received 3 trillion tokens (30% of total supply), which vested at a rate of 300 billion tokens quarterly for 10 quarters, and the Kin Foundation received 6 trillion (60% of total supply). The Kin Foundation tokens will be distributed through the Kin Rewards Engine, which divides the allocation between network participants and marketing and operational costs for the Kin Foundation (6 trillion Kin has been split into 4.5 trillion for network participants, and 1.5 trillion for marketing and other operational costs of the Kin foundation). Kin Foundation tokens for network participants are schedule to be distributed to the network at a rate of 20% of the remaining balance per year.
To learn more about and follow along with Kin allocation, check out Kin's page below, which was published in the spirit of transparency and disclosure in collaboration with Messari:
https://messari.io/asset/kin
14 - I want to integrate Kin into my software project. How do I get started? Where is the developer community?
Check out these developer resources!
Website: https://www.kin.org/developers
Documentation: https://docs.kin.org/intro
Android Tutorial Series: https://medium.com/kinblog/kin-android-development-tutorial-part-i-introduction-to-kin-83b21834a27e
Unity Tutorial Series: https://medium.com/kinblog/building-a-kin-powered-app-with-unity-cf8deef56bdb
Developer Communities: Kin Foundation Developer Forums: https://kindevforum.kin.org/ Kin Foundation Developer Discord: https://discordapp.com/invite/JavjKSx
Implementing Kin in PHP, Ruby, Javascript, Go, and 51+ Other Languages (by u/sednax): https://medium.com/@luc.hendriks/implement-kin-in-php-javascript-ruby-go-and-51-other-programming-languages-c7ae616de700
15 - How can I keep up with the latest developments in Kin?
Sign up for the Kin Newsletter here: https://ecopartners.kin.org/newsletter_signup
This subreddit also serves as a civil space for community to share and discuss developments.
Forum Rules & Guidelines
Purpose of the Forum
The KinFoundation subreddit is the public square for discussion and collaboration across the Kin ecosystem. It is important that we embrace the potential of the forum and foster a space where developers do not censor themselves, the curious are free to ask questions without shame, and holders are willing to collaborate on initiatives and discuss ongoing developments. For that reason, we have decided to broaden the discussion while also pinpointing fair and transparent moderation guidelines that will allow for a productive and healthy environment. This subreddit exists for the purpose of maintaining insight on what’s happening with the Kin Ecosystem, acting as a social gathering for its many participants, and mobilizing the community for things like collaborative initiatives, product feedback for developers, idea-sharing, and more.
Moderation Principles
· Transparency
All moderation actions should be guided by the principles laid out in this document and in the spirit of creating a productive and healthy environment for discussion & collaboration, although it is also understood to be iterative and subject to change.
· Objectivity
All moderation actions should be guided by a rules & practices-based approach, not one of personal judgment.
· Fairness
All moderation actions should be even-handed and based on agreeable principles that enable free but also fruitful discussion.
Code of Conduct
To participate in the public square, you must adhere to certain rules of conduct, which were created with the maintenance of productivity & civility in mind. Please review & refer to the rules here before and when posting:https://www.reddit.com/KinFoundation/about/rules/
Kin Ecosystem Directory
The Kin Ecosystem is a growing collective of independent teams, all aligned through a common incentive to build a more fair digital world. These teams build the tools, the infrastructure, and the apps that drive the reach and impact of Kin. As we continue to grow as an ecosystem, we want to make sure that the directory is maintained so that it can be a tool for everyone to use and contribute to. If you don’t see your app listed or want something changed, feel free to DM me or post here and tag me so that it can be updated. Some apps may be missing due to incomplete or inaccurate available details.
Organization -- Website -- Support / Contact--
· Bettapoint Website: https://bettapoint.com/ Contact: https://bettapoint.com/contact
· Castle Rush AR Website: https://www.darkvoodoostudios.com/castlerushar.html Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Catpurse Website: https://twitter.com/CatPurse1 Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Find (Find Travelers) Website: https://www.findtravelers.com/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· FistBump.io Website: https://virtualbotgames.wixsite.com/fistbump Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· imgvue Website: https://imgvue.com/ Contact: Contact Form
· Just Joking Website: https://kinloops.com/ Contact: See Website
· Kard Website: https://kinkard.org/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Kik Website: https://www.kik.com Contact: https://help.kik.com/hc/en-us
· Kimeo Website:https://kimeoapp.com/ Contact:[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Kinetik Website:https://www.kinetik.app/ Contact:[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
· KinFit Website:https://www.mykinfit.com/ Contact:[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Kin Foundation Website: https://www.Kin.org Contact: https://www.reddit.com/Kinfoundation
· Kinguist Website: Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Kinit Website:https://www.kinitapp.com/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Kinny Website: https://kinny.io/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Love & Loud Radio Website: https://www.loveandloudmusic.com/loveandloudradio Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
· Madlipz Website:https://www.madlipz.com/ Contact:https://www.madlipz.com/contact
· Matchmaker Website: Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· MonkingMe Website: https://www.monkingme.com/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Nearby Website: https://www.wnmlive.com/ Contact: https://help.wnmlive.com/hc/en-us
· Pause For Website:https://pausefor.us/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· PeerBet Website:https://peerbet.io/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Perfect365 Website: https://perfect365.com/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Photo Mail Joy Website: Contact:[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Planets Nu Website: https://planets.nu/#/home Contact:[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· pop.in Website: https://pop.in/getapp Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Rave Website: https://rave.io/ Contact: https://rave.io/contact.html
· rentmole Website: https://rentmole.com/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Rentomania Website: http://rentomania.online/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· RPS (Rock Paper Scissors) Website: http://www.rps.ack.ee/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Simple Transfer Website: https://www.kinlabs.ca/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Speed Genius Website: https://kinloops.com/ Contact: See website
· Step & Spend Website: Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Subti Website: https://vblago.github.io/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Subway Scooter Website: https://virtualbotgames.wixsite.com/fistbump Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Swelly Website: https://www.swelly.ai/ Contact: https://www.swelly.ai/#contact
· Sxlve Website: Contact:[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Syngli Website: https://www.syngli.com/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Tapatalk Website: https://www.tapatalk.com/ Contact: https://www.tapatalk.com/support
· ThisThat Website: https://www.thisthatapp.com/ Contact:
· Tiny Ted Website: https://www.kinlabs.ca/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Tippic Website: Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Trivia Clan Website: Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Trymoi Website: Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Uwe Website: https://www.uwe.ng/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Vent Website: https://www.vent.co/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
· Wicrypt Website: https://wicrypt.com/ Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (email)
submitted by Kevin_from_Kin to KinFoundation [link] [comments]

Binance, HitBTC, etc., Market Maker Pitch: How To Get Rich Online

As a follow-up to this:
https://hackernoon.com/making-markets-moving-crypto-free-and-open-source-binance-9bcea607e57b
https://github.com/DunnCreativeSS/binanceMarketMaker
https://github.com/DunnCreativeSS/hitBTCMarketMaker
Elevator Pitch
Market making on Deribit and BitMex failed because it counted on the market to remain more or less stagnant on the 0.25$ step. We’re now looking at automating two market making strategies for smaller volume, higher spread pairs.
Market Maker Trader
We buy just above the highest bid and sell just below the lowest ask. We repeat this process, using a fraction of account balance in base pairs, until we see the net profits as price fluctuations cancel each other out in the approaching infinity sense - while we soak up profits from the spread itself in the ‘relative orders’ strategy.
Conversationally, and not coded yet, is the ‘staggered order’ strategy, where you pick a maximum and minimum price for that pair and then stagger orders up and down the order book to buy and sell along set intervals.
Resources: Would need servers close to different exchanges.
Scalability: More coins; more scale
Pros: I’ve had .57 bitcoin volume on my deposit of $18 worth of coins on the ‘relative’ strategy in the last 24 hours, while sustaining about -0.5% growth. There are other exchanges (some with margin) where we can reproduce the bot, like bitfinex/ethfinex who have a market maker rebate paid monthly in their proprietary coin, or liquid who has a market maker rebate on pairs that were previously on qryptos
Add’l pros: on Binance I can effect a 20% or 40% income on fees via my referral link, on HitBTC the affiliate program is on pause but I may eventually be able to effect 75% - although the potential gains from HitBTC affiliate are less as there will eventually be a 0% or rebate on the maker fees
Cons: To prove profitable on Binance or HitBTC, you’d need to eliminate the fees or effect a market maker rebate. On Binance this involves volume as well as holding BNB - while still paying some fees, while on HitBTC that only involves building volume first - effecting 0% maker fees then 0.01% rebate. hitbtc dot com slash fee-tier binance dot come slash en/fee/schedule On HitBTC there’s also a market making program hitbtc dot com slash mm.
To Prove for Viability
Consistent over all types of markets, but identify when it does better
In the long run, price volatility helps the ‘staggered’ strategy more than it does the ‘relative’ strategy
Less volatility but still having volume, there will be gains from the ‘relative’ strategy
The potential loss is 1. Fees 2. Grabbing a coin that immediately dies, inclusive.
If you’re to eliminate fees or effect a fee rebate, this risk goes down
If you automate many pairs you lessen the negative effect of grabbing a coin that dies
Conversationally, a stop loss can be created to further lessen this risk
Sunk costs of dev
None - need to code the ‘staggered’ strategy, which I can do
Scalability given current market liquidity and volume
On exchanges like Binance or HitBTC, with many coinpairs that have significant volume, we can scale indefinitely
The bot currently checks the average volume per base asset, then the spread of a given pair, and enters only into those markets that meet the minimum and maximum volumes and target spread, as well as a minimum order quantity and maximum order quantity (to avoid sh#tcoins)
In base: market pair: volume in base, that looks like this:
{ BTC: { XDNBTC: 69.3393775486, VETBTC: 42.606415325 },
TUSD: { NXTUSD: 67247.7248096, TNTUSD: 53891.073732 },
MUSD: { QTUMUSD: 2545776.043225 },
NUSD: { XDNUSD: 280614.7629689 },
DUSD: { MAIDUSD: 54019.8292817 },
ETH:
{ ICXETH: 589.145211656,
NXTETH: 266.992269315,
REPETH: 616.456689351,
ONTETH: 5359.788369161,
NTKETH: 197.416308344,
KBCETH: 355.311810444,
ROXETH: 311.845628547 },
BUSD: { DGBUSD: 2445.14526651 },
GUSD: { BTGUSD: 141765.29622322 },
UUSD: { QNTUUSD: 29.4731369 },
PUSD: { ETPUSD: 68.5015549, ZAPUSD: 40.1461164 },
YUSD: { DAYUSD: 338.8757426, BERRYUSD: 248.9052084 },
QUSD: { STQUSD: 6039.7474451 },
IUSD: { WIKIUSD: 10575.2656811 },
FUSD: { ELFUSD: 14.04120135 },
URS:
{ ETHEURS: 2486.24206583,
LTCEURS: 1485.789705,
XMREURS: 2807.0239136 },
'0USD': { POA20USD: 20.1087685 },
EOS: { LSKEOS: 39.06901764 },
RWB: { BTCKRWB: 44.82036 } }
Forward Tests
This strategy was first coded about 48 hours ago on Binance. It lost about 0.5% in one day, and had 0.46 BTC in volume.
https://imgur.com/qEyq1ZB
The second iteration was on HitBTC, and as of about 10-12 hours ago has 0.12 BTC in volume (across many smaller orders, instead of the test version on Binance risking everything on one pair).
https://imgur.com/U6p4pX6
It’s lost about 0.23% in that time:
https://imgur.com/xEk6xe4
My calculations, based on losing 0.5% a day on average with entry level fees and based on HitBTC’s 0% maker fee after 1500BTC in 30-day volume, indicate that after a certain amount of time while trading a certain balance we can effect 0% fees, and therein effect profits:
https://imgur.com/HFQjgl0
This is not including the chance we can get market maker benefits or the 0.01%
rebate after 6000 BTC volume.
https://imgur.com/80ifssM
https://imgur.com/o5mpKYc
Conclusion
With enough volume anything is possible.
submitted by BasketballMan23 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Agustín Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, the central bank of central banks) on Cryptocurrencies today

I'd like to hear your thoughts on his lecture held today at the Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.
Read the full transcript here or via pdf link. https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp180206.pdf
1/10 Money in the digital age: what role for central banks? Lecture by Agustín Carstens General Manager, Bank for International Settlements House of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt, 6 February 2018
Introduction Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for that kind introduction, Jens. I am very happy to be here at this prestigious university and to be part of this impressive lecture series sponsored by Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE), the Center for Financial Studies (CFS) and the Deutsche Bundesbank. I would also like to thank Professor Brigitte Haar for being such a generous host today. It is an honour to discuss money at an event organised by the Bundesbank, which has been a beacon of stability since its foundation some 60 years ago. As Jens can attest, being a central banker is a fascinating job. In fact, it is a privilege. During the last decade it has been anything but quiet in the central banking world. We have been confronted with extraordinary circumstances that have required extraordinary policy responses. In such an environment, it has been of the utmost importance to share experiences and lessons learnt among central banks, creating a body of knowledge that will be there for the future. One of the reasons that central bank Governors from all over the world gather in Basel every two months is precisely to discuss issues at the front and centre of the policy debate. Following the Great Financial Crisis, many hours have been spent discussing the design and implications of, for example, unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates. Lately, we have seen a bit of a shift, to issues at the very heart of central banking. This shift is driven by developments at the cutting edge of technology. While it has been bubbling under the surface for years, the meteoric rise of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has led us to revisit some fundamental questions that touch on the origin and raison d’être for central banks: • What is money? • What constitutes good money, and where do cryptocurrencies fit in? • And, finally, what role should central banks play? The thrust of my lecture will be that, at the end of the day, money is an indispensable social convention backed by an accountable institution within the State that enjoys public trust. Many things have served as money, but experience suggests that something widely accepted, reliably provided and stable in its command over goods and services works best. Experience has also shown that to be credible, money requires institutional backup, which is best provided by a central bank. While central banks’ actions and services will evolve with technological developments, the rise of cryptocurrencies only highlights the important role central banks have played, and continue to play, as stewards of public trust. Private digital tokens posing as currencies, such as bitcoin and other crypto-assets that have mushroomed of late, must not endanger this trust in the fundamental value and nature of money.
What is money? “What is money?” is obviously a key question for any central banker, and one on which economists have spent much ink. The answer depends on how deep and philosophical one wants to be. Being at a university, especially one named after Goethe, I think I can err on the side of being philosophical. Conventional wisdom tells you that “money is what money does”.1 That is, money is a unit of account, a means of payment and a store of value. But telling you what something does does not really tell you what it is. And it certainly does not tell you why we need or have money, how it comes about and what the preconditions are for it to exist. In terms of the “need” for money, you may learn that money is a way to get around the general lack of double coincidence of wants. That is, it is rare that I have what you want and you have what I want at the same time. As barter is definitely not an efficient way of organising an economy, money is demanded as a tool to facilitate exchange. What about the other side of the coin, so to speak? How does money come about? Again, conventional wisdom may tell you that central banks provide money, ie cash (coins and notes), and commercial banks supply deposits. But this answer is often not fully satisfactory, as it does not tell why and how banks should be the one to “create” money. If you venture into more substantive analyses on monetary economics, things get more complex. One theory, which proposes that “money is memory”, amounts to arguing that a “superledger” can facilitate exchange just like money. This argument says a ledger is a way of keeping track of not only who has what but also who owes, and is owed, what. I will come back to this later. Moving beyond this line of thought, other scholarly and historical analyses provide answers that are more philosophical. These often amount to “money is a convention” – one party accepts it as payment in the expectation that others will also do so.2 Money is an IOU, but a special one because everyone in the economy trusts that it will be accepted by others in exchange for goods and services. One might say money is a “we all owe you”. Many things have served as money in this way. Figure 1 gives some examples: Yap stones, gold coins, cigarettes in war times, $100,000 bills, wissel (Wechsel), ie bills of exchange or bearer notes, such as those issued by the Bank of Amsterdam in the first half of the 17th century. It includes an example from my own country, Aztec hoe (or axe) money, a form of (unstamped) money made of copper used in central Mexico and parts of Central America. 1 See J Hicks, Critical essays in monetary theory, 1979. 2 See D Lewis, Convention: a philosophical study, 1969.
Common to most of these examples is that the nominal value of the items that have served at one time as money is unrelated to their intrinsic value. Indeed, as we know very well in the case of fiat money, the intrinsic value of most of its representations is zero. History shows that money as a convention needs to have a basis of trust, supported by some form of institutional arrangement.3 As Curzio Giannini puts it: “The evolution of monetary institutions appears to be above all the fruit of a continuous dialogue between economic and political spheres, with each taking turns to create monetary innovations … and to safeguard the common interest against abuse stemming from partisan interests.”4 Money can come in different institutional forms and colours. How to organise them? The paper by Bech and Garratt in last September’s BIS Quarterly Review presented the money flower as a way of organising monies in today’s environment.5 It acknowledges that money can take on rather different forms and be supplied in various ways. The money flower Allow me to explain, noting that we do not sell seeds to this money flower! 3 Fiat means “by law“. So, in principle, it should be said that money exists by convention or by law. But if trust in money does not prevail, the legal mandate that conveys value to money becomes meaningless. 4 C Giannini, The age of central banks, 2011. 5 M Bech and R Garratt, “Central bank cryptocurrencies”, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2017, pp 55–70.
The money flower highlights four key properties on the supply side of money: the issuer, the form, the degree of accessibility and the transfer mechanism. • The issuer can be either the central bank or “other”. “Other” includes nobody, that is, a particular type of money that is not the liability of anyone. • In terms of the form it takes, money is either electronic or physical. • Accessibility refers to how widely the type of money is available. It can either be wide or limited. • Transfer mechanism can either be a central intermediary or peer-to-peer, meaning transactions occur directly between the payer and the payee without the need for a central intermediary. Let us look at where some common types of money fit into the flower, starting with cash (or bank notes) as we know it today. Cash is issued by the central bank, is not electronic, is available to everyone and is peer-to-peer. I do not need a trusted third party such as Jens to help me pay each of you 10 euros. Let us try another one: bank deposits. They are not the liability of the central bank, mostly electronic, and in most countries available to most people, but clearly not peer-to-peer. Transferring resources from a bank deposit requires the involvement of at least your own bank, perhaps the central bank and the recipient’s bank. Think here not only of commercial bank deposits but also bills, eg non-interest bearing (bearer) certificates, issued privately, as in the case of the Bank of Amsterdam mentioned earlier. Local or regional currencies are the ones that can be spent in a particular geographical location at participating organisations. They tend to be physical. The túmin, for example, was a local currency circulating (illegally) for some time around 2010 exclusively in the Mexican municipality of Espinal. What does digitalisation mean for the flower? Digitalisation is nothing new: financial services and most forms of money have been largely digital for many years. Much of the ongoing transformation is just adding a mobile version for many services, which means that the device becomes a virtual extension of the institution. As such, there is not a new model. The money flower then also easily accommodates these forms.
That is also the case for the digital, account-based forms of money that central banks traditionally have made available to commercial banks and, in some instances, to certain other financial or public institutions (ie bank reserves). It would also be the case if the central bank were to issue digital money to the wider public for general purposes. Each central bank will have to make its own decision on whether issuing digital money is desirable, after considering factors such as the structure of the financial system and underlying preferences for privacy. The central bank community is actively analysing this issue. A potentially important and leapfrogging digital-related development, however, is distributed ledger technology (DLT), the basis for Bitcoin. Many think DLT could transform financial service provision, maybe first wholesale, then possibly retail. For example, it could enhance settlement efficiency involving securities and derivatives transactions. A few central banks have conducted experiments in this area, for example the Bank of Canada, the Bundesbank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Bank of England.6 Yet doubts remain regarding the maturity of DLT and the size of associated efficiency gains relative to existing technologies. Moreover, their robustness, including to cyber-risk, is still to be fully understood and ascertained. Still, there are potential benefits, and I expect that central banks will remain engaged on this topic.7 For now, DLT is largely used to “create” bitcoin and other digital currencies. Such cryptocurrencies can be placed easily in the money flower. Nobody issues them, they are not physical and they are peer-to-peer. But beyond that, how should one think about them? What constitutes good money? Just because we are able to find a place for bitcoin in our money flower does not mean we should consider it as “good” money. As I mentioned before, trust is the fundamental tenet that underpins credible currencies, and this trust has to be earned and supported. There are many lessons from history and institutional economics on the earning of trust that we can use as we move further into digitalisation.8 Over the ages, many forms of private money have come and gone. It is fair to say that the same has happened with various experiments with public money (that is, money issued by a public entity that is not the central bank). While some lasted longer than others, most have invariably given way to some form of central bank money. The main reason for their disappearance is that the “incentives to cheat” are simply too high. Let me give three historical examples: one in Germany, another in the United States and the last one in Mexico. In Germany, the Thirty Years War (1618–48), involving small German states of the Holy Roman Empire and neighbouring regional powers, was associated with one of the most severe economic crises ever recorded, with rampant hyperinflation – just as happened three centuries later during the Weimar Republic – and the breakdown of trade and economic activity. The crisis became known as the Kipper- und Wipperzeit (the clipping and culling times), after the practice of clipping coins (shaving metal from their circumference) and sorting good coins from bad. This morning, we are launching a BIS Working Paper, by Professor Isabel Schnabel and BIS Economic Adviser Hyun Song Shin, which further details and explains this experience, as background to my speech. 6 See Bech and Garratt, op cit. 7 See Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures, Distributed ledger technology in payment, clearing and settlement: an analytical framework, February 2017. 8 See D North, Institutions, institutional change and economic performance, 1990.
While episodes of currency debasement have occurred throughout history, this one stands out for two reasons. First is the severity of the crisis and its rapid regional spread. Debasement proceeded at such a pace that public authorities quickly lost control of the downward spiral. Second is how the debasement was brought under control. This occurred through standardisation of wholesale payments by public deposit banks, for example the Bank of Hamburg and the Bank of Amsterdam. These were in many ways examples of the precursors of modern central banks. As the working paper argues, monetary order could be brought to an otherwise chaotic situation by providing reliable payment means through precursors to central bank money, which at the end means the use of a credible institutional arrangement. In the period in the United States known as the Free Banking Era, from 1837 to 1863, many banks sprang up that issued currency with no oversight of any kind by the federal government.10 These so-called free bank notes did not work very well as a medium of exchange. Given that there were so many banks of varying reputations issuing notes, they sold at different prices in different places, making transactions quite complicated. And as supervision was largely absent, banks had limited restraint in issuing notes and did not back them up sufficiently with specie (gold or silver), thereby debasing their values. This era of “wildcat banking” ended up being a long and costly period of banking instability in the history of the US, with banking panics and major disruptions to economic activity. It was, after some further hiccups, followed by the establishment of the Federal Reserve System in 1913. Let me present a final example, from Mexican monetary history. A little known fact is that Mexico had the first series of hyperinflations at the beginning of the 20th century. My country had a revolution from 1910 to 1921, in which no central government existed in an effective way, with many factions fighting and disputing different territories. A winning faction would arrive in a territory, print its own money and make void previously issued cash. So different bills issued by different factions coexisted, leading to chaos and hyperinflation. To give you an idea of the disorder, in 2015 four trunks full of bills were returned to Mexico after having been appropriated by the US Navy in 1914, when the US occupied the port city of Veracruz. In the trunks, the Bank of Mexico discovered dozens of types of bills that the central bank had not even known existed.11 At the end of the conflict, a new constitution was drafted, having as a central article one which gave the Bank of Mexico the appropriate institutional framework, designating it the exclusive issuer of currency in the country. Once this was in place, hyperinflation ceased, illustrating the importance of controlling fiscal dominance (which tends to be the result of the abuse of publicly issued money). Based on these experiences, most observers, and I suspect all of you here, would agree that laissez-faire is not a good approach in banking or in the issuance of money. Indeed, the paradigm of strict bank regulation and supervision and central banks overseeing the financial and monetary system that has emerged over the last century or so has proven to be the most effective way to avoid the instability and high economic costs associated with the proliferation of private and public monies. 9 I Schnabel and H S Shin, “Money and trust: lessons from the 1620s for money in the digital age”, BIS Working Papers, no 698, February 2018. 10 See G Dwyer, “Wildcat banking, banking panics, and free banking in the United States”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, vol 81, nos 3–6, 1996; A Rolnick and W Weber, “New evidence of the free banking era”, The American Economic Review, vol 73, no 5, December 1983, pp 1080–91; and C Calomiris, “Banking crises yesterday and today”, Financial History Review, vol 17, no 1, 2010, pp 3–12. 11 See Bank of Mexico, “La SRE entregó al Banco de México un acervo de billetes de la época del porfiriato”, press release, 1 June 2015, www.banxico.org.mx/informacion-para-la-prensa/comunicados/billetes-y-monedas/billetes/%7B3A41E6F8-FBD8-2FA7-DA0B-66FCCE46430A%7D.pdf.
The unhappy experience with private forms of money raises deep questions about whether the proliferation of cryptocurrencies is desirable or sustainable. Even if the supply of one type of cryptocurrency is limited, the mushrooming of so many of them means that the total supply of all forms of cryptocurrency is unlimited. Added to this is the practice of “forking”, where an offshoot of an existing cryptocurrency can be conjured up from thin air. Given the experience with currency debasement that has peppered history, the proliferation of such private monies should give everyone pause for thought. I will return to this shortly. We have learned over the centuries that money as a social institution requires a solution to the problem of a lack of trust.12 The central banks that often emerged in the wake of the private and public money collapses may not have looked like the ones we have today, but they all had some institutional backing. The forms of this backing for their issuance of money have differed over time and by country.13 Commodity money has often been the start. History shows that gold and other precious metals stored in the vault with governance (and physical) safeguards can provide some assurance. Commodity money is not the only or necessarily sufficient mechanism. Often it also required a city-, state- or nation-provided charter, as with the emergence of giro banks in many European countries. Later, the willingness of central banks to convert money for gold at a fixed price (the gold standard) was the mechanism. Currency boards, where local money is issued one-to-one with changes in foreign currency holdings, can also work to provide credibility. The tried, trusted and resilient modern way to provide confidence in public money is the independent central bank. This means legal safeguards and agreed goals, ie clear monetary policy objectives, operational, instrument and administrative independence, together with democratic accountability to ensure broad-based political support and legitimacy. While not fully immune from the temptation to cheat, central banks as an institution are hard to beat in terms of safeguarding society’s economic and political interest in a stable currency. Where do cryptocurrencies fit in? One could argue that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies’ attractiveness lies in an intelligent application of DLT. DLT provides a method to broadcast transactions publicly and pseudonymously in a way that achieves in principle ledger immutability.14 Who would have thought that having people guessing solutions to what was described to me by a techie as the mathematical equivalent of mega-sudokus would be a way to generate consensus among strangers around the world through a proof of work? Does it thus provide a novel solution to the problem of how to generate trust among people who do not know each other? If DLT provides the potential for a superledger, could bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies then substitute for some forms of money?15 We do not have the full answers, but at this time the answer, also in the light of historical experiences, is probably a sound no, for many reasons. In fact, we are seeing the type of cracks and cheating that brought down other private currencies starting to appear in the House of Bitcoin. As an institution, Bitcoin has some obvious flaws. 12 See M King, “The institutions of monetary policy”, speech at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, San Diego, 4 January 2004. 13 See Giannini, op cit. 14 See Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures, op cit. 15 See N Kocherlakota, “Money is memory”, Journal of Economic Theory, vol 81, pp 232–51, 1998. In fact, he shows in a very stark setting that having a costless means to record the memory of all economic actors, both present and past, can do as much as money, and sometimes more. Conversely, money effectively functions as memory by providing an observable record of past transactions – that is, agents can tell whether a potential trader is running a current deficit or surplus with society by looking at the money balances that trader is carrying. The finding, however, is theoretical and not robust to slight changes in assumptions, including the risk of loss of data.
Debasement. As I mentioned, we may be seeing the modern-day equivalent of clipping and culling. In Bitcoin, these take the form of forks, a type of spin-off in which developers clone Bitcoin’s software, release it with a new name and a new coin, after possibly adding a few new features or tinkering with the algorithms’ parameters. Often, the objective is to capitalise on the public’s familiarity with Bitcoin to make some serious money, at least virtually. Last year alone, 19 Bitcoin forks came out, including Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Diamond. Forks can fork again, and many more could happen. After all, it just takes a bunch of smart programmers and a catchy name. As in the past, these modern-day clippings dilute the value of existing ones, to the extent such cryptocurrencies have any economic value at all. Trust. As the saying goes, trust takes years to build, seconds to break and forever to repair. Historical experiences suggest that these “assets” are probably not sustainable as money. Cryptocurrencies are not the liability of any individual or institution, or backed by any authority. Governance weaknesses, such as the concentration of their ownership, could make them even less trustworthy. Indeed, to use them often means resorting to an intermediary (for example, the bitcoin exchanges) to which one has to trust one’s money. More generally, they piggyback on the same institutional infrastructure that serves the overall financial system and on the trust that it provides. This reflects their challenge to establish their own trust in the face of cyber-attacks, loss of customers’ funds, limits on transferring funds and inadequate market integrity. Inefficiency. Novel technology is not the same as better technology or better economics. That is clearly the case with Bitcoin: while perhaps intended as an alternative payment system with no government involvement, it has become a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster. The volatility of bitcoin renders it a poor means of payment and a crazy way to store value. Very few people use it for payments or as a unit of account. In fact, at a major cryptocurrency conference the registration fee could not be paid with bitcoins because it was too costly and slow: only conventional money was accepted. To the extent they are used, bitcoins and their cousins seem more attractive to those who want to make transactions in the black or illegal economy, rather than everyday transactions. In a way, this should not be surprising, since individuals who massively evade taxes or launder money are the ones who are willing to live with cryptocurrencies’ extreme price volatility. In practice, central bank experiments show that DLT-based systems are very expensive to run and slower and much less efficient to operate than conventional payment and settlement systems. The electricity used in the process of mining bitcoins is staggering, estimated to be equal to the amount Singapore uses every day in electricity,16 making them socially wasteful and environmentally bad. Therefore, the current fascination with these cryptocurrencies seems to have more to do with a speculative mania than any use as a form of electronic payment, except for illegal activities. Accordingly, authorities are edging closer and closer to clamping down to contain the risks related to cryptocurrencies. There is a strong case for policy intervention. As now noted by many securities markets and regulatory and supervisory agencies, these assets can raise concerns related to consumer and investor protection. Appropriate authorities have a duty to educate and protect investors and consumers, and need to be prepared to act. Moreover, there are concerns related to tax evasion, money laundering and criminal finance. Authorities should welcome innovation. But they have a duty to make sure technological advances are not used to legitimise profits from illegal activities. 16 See Digiconomist, “Bitcoin energy consumption index”, digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption.
What role for the central bank? Central banks, acting by themselves and/or in coordination with other financial authorities like bank regulators and supervisors, ministries of finance, tax agencies and financial intelligence units, may also need to act, given their roles in providing money services and safeguarding money’s real value. Working with commercial banks, authorities have a part to play in policing the digital frontier. Commercial banks are on the front line since they are the ones settling trades, providing real liquidity, keeping exchanges going and interacting with customers. It is alarming that some banks have advertised “bitcoin ATMs” where you can buy and sell bitcoins. Authorities need to ensure commercial banks do not facilitate unscrupulous behaviours. Central banks need to safeguard payment systems. To date, Bitcoin is not functional as a means of payment, but it relies on the oxygen provided by the connection to standard means of payments and trading apps that link users to conventional bank accounts. If the only “business case” is use for illicit or illegal transactions, central banks cannot allow such tokens to rely on much of the same institutional infrastructure that serves the overall financial system and freeload on the trust that it provides. Authorities should apply the principle that the Basel Process has adhered to for years: to provide a level playing field to all participants in financial markets (banks and non-banks alike), while at the same time fostering innovative, secure and competitive markets. In this context, this means, among other things, ensuring that the same high standards that money transfer and payment service providers have to meet are also met by Bitcoin-type exchanges. It also means ensuring that legitimate banking and payment services are only offered to those exchanges and products that meet these high standards. Financial authorities may also have a case to intervene to ensure financial stability. To date, many judge that, given cryptocurrencies’ small size and limited interconnectedness, concerns about them do not rise to a systemic level. But if authorities do not act pre-emptively, cryptocurrencies could become more interconnected with the main financial system and become a threat to financial stability. Most importantly, the meteoric rise of cryptocurrencies should not make us forget the important role central banks play as stewards of public trust. Private digital tokens masquerading as currencies must not subvert this trust. As history has shown, there simply is no substitute. Still, central banks are embracing new technologies as appropriate. Many new developments can help. For example, fintech and “techfin” – which refers to established technology platforms venturing into financial services. These are changing financial service provision in many countries, most clearly in payments, and especially in some emerging market economies (for example, China and Kenya). While they introduce the possibility of non-bank financial institutions introducing money-type instruments, which raises a familiar set of regulatory questions, they do present scope for many gains. Conclusion In conclusion, while cryptocurrencies may pretend to be currencies, they fail the basic textbook definitions. Most would agree that they do not function as a unit of account. Their volatile valuations make them unsafe to rely on as a common means of payment and a stable store of value. They also defy lessons from theory and experiences. Most importantly, given their many fragilities, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to satisfy the requirement of trust to make them sustainable forms of money. While new technologies have the potential to improve our lives, this is not invariably the case. Thus, central banks must be prepared to intervene if needed. After all, cryptocurrencies piggyback on the institutional infrastructure that serves the wider financial system, gaining a semblance of legitimacy from their links to it. This clearly falls under central banks’ area of responsibility. The buck stops here. But the buck also starts here. Credible money will continue to arise from central bank decisions, taken in the light of day and in the public interest. In particular, central banks and financial authorities should pay special attention to two aspects. First, to the ties linking cryptocurrencies to real currencies, to ensure that the relationship is not parasitic. And second, to the level playing field principle. This means “same risk, same regulation”. And no exceptions allowed.
submitted by stellan0r to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 12/04

The Dow fell 799.36, or 3.1%, to 25,027.07, the Nasdaq lost 283.09, or 3.8%, to 7,158.43 , and the S&P 500 declined 90.31, or 3.24%, to 2,700.06.
The S&P 500 tumbled 3.2% on Tuesday, catalyzed by waning optimism in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China and concern over future economic growth, which was signaled by the drop in U.S. Treasury yields. A technical breach of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average (2762.32) also contributed to some selling.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.0%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.8%, and the Russell 2000 lost 4.4%.
Monday's trade-relief rally was under pressure from the onset as market participants reoriented their mindset to concerns that the U.S. and China won't be able to settle differences over major trading issues in the next 90 days. President Trump seemed to stoke those concerns with a tweet that acknowledged the possibility of getting a deal done with China, but which also carried the reminder that he is a "Tariff Man," implying that he would revert to further tariff action if a deal doesn't get done.
In a series of tweets regarding trade, President Trump said negotiations with China have already started and unless extended, "they will end 90 days from the date of our wonderful and very warm dinner with President Xi in Argentina." Trump added that "President Xi and I want this deal to happen, and it probably will [...] If a fair deal is able to be made with China, one that does all of the many things we know must be finally done, I will happily sign." In Europe, an advocate general of the European Court of Justice said that the U.K. should be able to unilaterally cancel its exit from the European Union. Additionally, Theresa May's government lost a vote and was found to be in contempt of Parliament after it refused to publish the full legal advice underpinning its Brexit plan.
Beyond that factor, today's sell-off was really sparked by economic growth concerns, which manifested themselves in a decisive curve-flattening trade in the Treasury market that also featured an inversion of the 2-yr note yield (2.80%) and 3-yr note yield (2.80%) over the 5-yr note yield (2.79%). The 10-2 spread narrowed to 12 basis points, which is the narrowest spread since 2007.
The benchmark 10-yr yield dropped seven basis points to 2.92% while the 30-yr yield dropped 10 basis points to 3.17%. Those moves were exacerbated by a "pain trade," as short sellers expecting higher rates were compelled to cover their bearish bets.
It was telling, too, that the drop in interest rates wasn't a catalyst for increased buying interest in the stock market. The reason being is that the drop in rates was grounded in concerns over future economic growth, which in turn drove concerns about future earnings growth.
Concerns over future economic growth were reflected in the poor performances from the cyclical sectors, as well as the domestically-oriented Russell 2000 (-4.4%). The financials (-4.4%), industrials (-4.3%), consumer discretionary (-3.9%), and information technology sectors (-3.8%) underperformed the broader market.
The rate-sensitive financial sector was undermined by the flattening yield curve, which raised concerns about a compression in net interest margins.
In corporate news, AAPL was under pressure after HSBC analyst Erwan Rambourg downgraded the stock to Hold as he believes growth in the company's core iPhone business is set to "slow dramatically." Meanwhile, CRUS cut its third quarter revenue view due to smartphone weakness, becoming the latest in a line of the company's chip customers to do so. APPL shares fell 4.4% while Cirrus declined about 2%.
MA shares were in focus after the company's board increased its quarterly cash dividend 32% to 33c per share and authorized the repurchase of up to $6.5B of its Class A common stock. The new share repurchase program will become effective at the completion of the company's previously announced $4B share repurchase program, MasterCard said.
Other laggards included the cyclical transport and chip stocks, which respectively weighed on the industrial and tech sectors. Notable underperformers included industrials UPS -7.4% and AAL -7.5%; and AMD -10.9% and NVDA -7.6%. The Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 4.0%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 5.0%.
Among the noteworthy gainers was AZO which rose 6.8% after it beat earnings expectations. Also higher was RH, which gained 11% after the luxury home hardware retailer reported better than expected quarterly results. Among the notable losers was VEEV, which fell 6% after short-seller Citron Research said that market correction should hit the stock "harder than any other SaaS" peer and put a $65 price target on the shares.
Stocks in Asia mostly slipped on Tuesday amid uncertainty about the future of U.S.-China trade relations. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 2.39 percent to close at 22,036.05 while the Topix index shed 2.36 percent to 1,649.20 by the end of the trading day.

Currency

The dollar fell broadly on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields slipped, feeding fears that the Federal Reserve could pause in its rate-hike cycle, while an inversion in part of the yield curve was taken as a red flag for a potential recession.

Treasury

The Treasury market had a remarkable day that featured a decisive curve-flattening trade and an inversion of the 2-yr yield (2.80%) and 3-yr yield (2.81%) versus the 5-yr yield (2.79%). That inversion and the flattening action triggered an economic slowdown narrative that undermined investor confidence in the stock market and fostered some safe-haven positioning in the Treasury market. The S&P 500 was down 3.0% as of this post. The yield on the 30-yr bond scraped 3.13% at its lows of the day while the 10-yr note yield hit 2.88%. Short-covering activity fueled the gains as the continued drop in rates triggered a "pain trade" for short sellers who had been expecting rates to move higher. The 10-2 spread narrowed to 12 basis points, which is the narrowest since 2007.

Commodity

Oil prices pared gains in a volatile trade on Tuesday as fears flared that demand would stall due to a trade war between the U.S. and China, and as Russia remained a stumbling block to a deal to cut global crude supply. Palladium soared to a record high on Tuesday, fueled by speculative interest and tight supplies of the autocatalyst metal, briefly surpassing gold, which scaled to more than a five-week peak as the dollar slid.

Crypto

Bitcoin Holds Steady Around $4,000. Many analysts have speculated that the increasing unprofitability of mining Bitcoin could be adversely affecting the markets, as some models suggest that the cost of mining one Bitcoin is currently $4,500, which is more expensive than the Bitcoin itself is worth.

YTD

  • Nasdaq +3.7% YTD
  • Dow +1.3% YTD
  • S&P 500 +1.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -3.6% YTD

AH news

  • QCOM introduces Snapdragon 855 mobile platform
  • China is "puzzled and irritated" by Trump administration's words of triumph after trade truce.
  • API Crude +5.36mm (-900k)

What's tomorrow?

As a reminder the stock market will be closed on Wednesday in honor of the late George H.W. Bush, the 41st President of the United States.
On Thursday, investors will receive the ADP Employment Change Report for November, Q3 Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Trade Balance for October, weekly Initial and Continuing Claims, Factory Orders for October, and ISM Services for November.
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.47 seconds.
submitted by hibernating_brain to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

Bitcoin_Schmitcoin Latest ETHUSD Analysis

Since its rapid ascent from $8 to the $400s, ether has seen a fair amount of volatility. Over the last few weeks, there has been a surge in volume as it pushed out of its multi-month trading range:
https://imgur.com/a/eyTwK
The several months ether spent consolidating appears to have formed a macro Reaccumulation Phase that led to a breakout of the trading range on strong volume; ultimately yielding our current market position in the $450s.
A Reaccumulation Phase is a pause after a strong uptrend that attempts to shake out weak shareholders as the market consolidates toward the stronger holders of a given commodity. A Reaccumulation Phase is intended to torture the weak holders of a commodity into ultimately relinquishing their market share to the stronger market players, before a strong, upward continuation of the previous trend kicks back in.
Some of the characteristics of a Reaccumulation Phase include strong buyback on the dips with high volume and wide candle spread:
https://imgur.com/a/MSvCv
When analyzing trading ranges, it is paramount to contextualize the price movement and the volume. Doing so reveals the intent of the larger market players and will help give traders insight into the potential strength (or weakness) of their investments. Throughout the length of the trading range, it is common to see several tests of both the upper and lower boundaries (the blue horizontal lines).
One key trait we are looking for when identifying a Reaccumulation Phase is the increase in volume as the stock (or coin in our case) begins to rally toward the latter end of the trading range:
https://imgur.com/a/CiMCH
Although the current market trend is somewhat consolidating in these higher price levels, it is a very bullish sign that we have broken out of the trading range and done so on increasing volume. This trend shows that the market is now dominated by demand and all the free-floating supply has been absorbed. As the market begins to test new highs, wait for volume to increase to confirm strength in the upward direction.
TL;DR 1. ETH-USD broke out of a potential, multi-month reaccumulation phase. 2. Increasing volume on the move out of the trading range gives us confidence in a bullish continuation.
Check out www.BitcoinSchmitcoin.com to join my trading community and learn how to analyze the cryptomarket. Also, you can check out my YouTube Channel to catch my livestreams and market recaps!
submitted by Bitcoin_Schmitcoin to EthAnalysis [link] [comments]

The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3b - Pricing and liquidity

*Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and SDC holder. *
...
Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
Part 3b continues where I left off with a discussion about price metrics specifically, what determines the price and the importance of liquidity:
...
The day traders:
As I mentioned in my previous article, as of writing almost every cryptocurrency is determined purely by speculative value.
Thus the absolute price of a given cryptocurrency is determined solely by the day traders and specifically the last price it was agreed that currency would be sold at with confirmation of that price by a buyer who bought it.
People say lots of things determine the price; marketcap, liquidity, value proposition, revenues generated by the coin, the number of said coin in circulation but ultimately it comes down to the number of buyers and number of sellers competing for that coin.
Perhaps the other thing is the size of said market relative to the money held by the players in it.
For instance in cryptocurrency Bitcoin is still the biggest player in the game. It carries a per unit price of $900 per coin. There are currently 16,090,137 (16 million) coins in circulation giving it a total marketcap value of [$900 x 16090137 =] $14481123300 or 14.48 billion USD.
Shadowcash looks even more meagre compared to the total cryptocurrency marketcap with only 0.048% of the total cryptocurrency sphere.
To any Shadowcash holders despairing at this point, relax. There are over 707 cryptocurrencies trading as of writing and SDC holds the 27th ranking in terms of market cap. In such a competitive field, filled with scams that's pretty good. Moreso when you consider that SDC is a legitimate technology and is currently probably very undervalued.
...
Lets look at the rich list for bitcoin:
Why did I just talk about this?
In cryptocurrency I see this happening on the markets all the time. Indeed market manipulation effects every single cryptocurrency eventually.
...
Market manipulation!
Large holders of valuable, high marketcap coins will often make multiple small volume purchases of less valuable, low marketcap coins. Often this will follow announcements regarding developments in that low marketcap coin.
Low volume buying in a market with low daily trading volume can gradually drive up the price attracting an influx of buyers into that coin; often they will make larger volume purchases of it which helps drive up the price much further. This will trigger a further chain of buyers experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out, detailed in Part 2) who will drive up the price even further. The price will pump. Often will smaller cap cryptocurrencies this may result in a sudden 20, 40, 60 or even +100% increase in value often over a very short time space (1-2 days, 1-2 weeks maximum).
The only way to discern if the sudden rise in coin value is due to pre-rigged market manipulation is to look at:
You are looking for organic, gradual growth based on a solid value proposition. Sudden large spikes in value should make you pause and wonder if it's worth waiting for a gradual correction (organic drop) in price before entering your buy order.
Do not fall for a pump and dump. Stick to the lessons covered in previous parts of this guide (especially part 3a and 2) and you will be much less likely to lose money in the long run trading and investing in cryptocurrencies.
...
The pattern of change on daily trading volume, the order book and liquidity:
Lets look at SDC and Bitcoin again. This time we are going to compare the daily trading volume (last 24 hours) in USD.
I'd just like to use this opportunity to point out and reinforce the idea that day traders not holders dictate the daily price of an asset. I'd also like to point out daily global trading volume on Forex is $4800 billion which makes Bitcoin a very small fish in the broader arena of global finance and trade i.e. Bitcoin is still very vulnerable to all the price manipulation tactics and liquidity issues I am going to be describing in this article by bigger players with richer pockets.
The daily trading volume also gives you an idea of how much fiat currency you can invest into a given cryptocurrency before you suddenly shift the price.
A sudden rise in coin price heavily out of proportion to the rise in daily trading volume should be the first sign to alert you to a pump & dump scam.
Daily trading volume should show a steady increase over time with sustained buy support at new price levels; this is a good marker of organic, sustainable growth.
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For more detail you can now look at the depth chart:
The depth chart is very useful to know how much fiat currency is required to cause the spot price of a given cryptocurrency to rise or fall by a given amount.
NB the price of most cryptocurrencies is expressed in Bitcoin because it has the largest market cap and daily trading volume of all cryptocurrencies by a very large margin and because with a few exceptions (Ethereum, Monero) most cryptocurrencies do not have routes to directly purchase via fiat currency without first purchasing Bitcoin.
Liquidity is super important. People often complain about a market lacking liquidity but that is often because they are trading in fiat volumes which far exceed the daily trading fiat volumes of the cryptocurrency they are referring to. If you are investing or trading in a cryptocurrency, always factor in the your personal liquidity and need for liquidity relative to that of the cryptocurrency you are investing in. In other words don't expect to make a profit next day selling 'cryptocurrency x' if the size your single buy order composes >90% of the buy orders on the market for 'cryptocurrency x' that day (indeed in such a scenario be very prepared to sell at a loss next day if you absolutely have to)!
There are certain patterns on a depth chart that make me believe a significant, sustained price rise is imminent: One example occurs when there is a very large volume of buy orders (>25% of total buy volume within 5% of current price) very close to the current (spot) price, and a very large number of sell orders close to but significantly above the spot price (approx 25% total sell volume within 10% of current price) and especially if the total buy order volume is a significantly higher percentage than it has previously been. This simply indicates high demand at current price which may soon outstrip supply. Again I stress that these patterns can be manipulated easily by wealthy traders.
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The order book is another way of looking at the depth chart and allows you to see the specific transactions occurring that compose daily trading volume by the second!
I find it useful because it allows me to identify:
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The price charts:
Discussions about price charts could be endless. I'm not going to go into too much detail, mostly because I'm an investor who believes the value proposition, good consistent development, decent marketing and communications will ultimately trump spot prices and adverse (or positive) short term price trends in the future.
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The news cycle:
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Other interesting points: The 'coin x' scenario and the ridiculousness of marketcap:
'Coin X' is an imaginary hypothetical coin. There are only 10 in circulation. It has no value proposition beyond it's speculative value i.e. it will never generate a revenue independent of it's speculative value.
I'd like to point out the similarities between ZCash and 'coin x' (especially during it's launch).
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Lessons:
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Finally why am I writing this?
I mean I just spoke openly about how SDC and indeed any cryptocurrencies (or purely speculative assets) price can be manipulated in the short term.
Well SDC has an incredible value proposition that could generate and attract large amounts of non-speculative fiat currency into it's ecosystem. I already covered that in part 3a (https://www.reddit.com/Shadowcash/comments/5lhh6m/the_intelligent_investors_guide_to_cryptocurrency/).
For this reason I think the short term speculative pump and dumps in SDC will eventually be replaced by a more sustained, larger buy support. I suspect this will occur when the marketplace is released and certain other announcements are released.
For this reason I declare my opinion that Shadowcash is the best cryptocurrency investment of 2016 and I believe it will be again by March 2017.
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References:
1. Coinmarketcap rankings: https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ 2. Coinmarketcap daily trading volumes https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/volume/24-hou 3. Bitinfocharts - Top 100 Richest Bitcoin addresses: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html 4. Crypto ID - Shadowcash Rich list: https://chainz.cryptoid.info/sdc/#!rich 
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Disclaimer: All prices and values given are as of time of writing (Midday 08-Jan-2016). I am not responsible for your financial decisions, nor am I advising you take a particular financial position. Rather I am sharing my experiences and hoping you form your own opinions and insights from them. Full disclosure: I have long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), ICONOMI (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD).
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